Umamusume.

They are born to run.

They inherit otherworldly names, and are inspired by dreams most dramatic and wonderful.
Now, they run ever forward. That is their destiny.

No one knows how the races that lie in their futures will end.
Even so, they continue to run, aiming only toward the goal in front of them.

Welcome to the first blog post of An Uma Fan Explains (Badly)! Here, I’ll do my best to explain each upcoming G1 with the history and narratives surrounding it for those who got into horseracing from Umamusume! I got into horseracing through the franchise last year and have since been spending my time following Japan’s own scene in particular. This blog will help to introduce new terms, ideas, and theories surrounding horseracing.

The very first post here is dedicated to the race that is due to run tomorrow called the Spring Tenno Sho which is one of the two races with the same name with the other being held in the autumn season. From long-distance experts to aspiring contenders, this race is sure to excite many newcomers who are getting into horseracing through CyGame’s flagship series!

Introduction & Context

The Spring Tenno Sho, inaugurated in 1938, stands above all other races as Japan’s main championship race for racehorses who are bred and trained specifically to run over longer distances. Known by horseracing fans as “stayers”, they are most renowned for their stamina, be it through sheer efficient breathing or seemingly immense lungs that can allow them to go on for a long while even under a “slower” tempo of around 55 kilometers an hour. 

Champions of the race often carry the accolade of being the country’s best stayer due to the limited number of graded races that are at 3000 metres or more. The closest other major races with staying as the decisive requirement for success are the G3 Diamond Stakes, the G2 Hanshin Daishoten, and the G2 Stayer’s Stakes. Of the three, they all serve as trials/qualifiers for the Spring Tenno Sho with the Hanshin Daishoten offering automatic berths, meaning that top finishers like the winner get priority on entering the race. Other trials include the G2 Nikkei Sho and the G2 Kyoto Kinen For this, some argue that winning three Spring Tenno Shos mark a monumental achievement that would make the champion be known as the greatest stayer in the country’s history.

The last winner is Redentor, both a 5-year old son of Rulership and with a broodmare sire in Stay Gold, who already shows his affinity in running in long distances. His first graded attempt in the 2024 G2 Aoba Sho saw him clock the third fastest L3F time of 33.7 seconds despite having a slow start alongside very awkward positioning until the final straight (called a home straight for Britain or homestretch for US spelling) as well as it being his first race that’s over 2000m. On his second graded attempt in the G1 Kikuka Sho, he came second to Urban Chic after gradually moving his position from second-to-last place to 5th by the final corner. His 4YO season, short as it was due to his injury which put him out of the second half of the year, saw him triumph as a stayer. He won the Diamond Stakes by a whopping 4 lengths after taking the position of being 1st by the final corner before fending off a strong spurt by Byzantine Dream to claim the Spring Tenno Sho.

Previous winners include Mejiro McQueen, who won the race twice in 1991 and 1992 before losing to Rice Shower on an attempt to win the race a third time in 1993 which sets the precedent of winning the race three times; T O Royal, whose success in 2024 mark the culmination of his dominance in being a staying specialist with wins in 2 Diamond Stakes win and a previous win in the Hanshin Daishoten; and Kitasan Black, whose similar consecutive wins as McQueen also include a race record being set in 2017 at 3:12.5.

Race Layout and General Assumption

The Spring Tenno Sho takes place on Kyoto Racecourse which goes through the outer ring. Entrants will run around the course around one and a half time with the most amount of undulations being between the second half of the upper straight and the middle of the outer ring (that being a gradual uphill slope before a downward slope). The final straight has no slopes of any kind which largely alleviates whatever bit of extra pressure that could be placed on those who are just about tired out. 

The race’s longer distance combined with the longer final straight necessitates a bit more than just stamina. The winner tends to stand out through their solid ability to accelerate on the final corner, turning whatever they have left in them to run into fuel to reach top speed. In other words, the best racehorses in the race can’t just continue running even on 3000 metres or more. They must also have a strong spurt to catapult themselves over the finishing line. This is best shown in the last 10 years’ worth of results. At least one of the top 3 favourites have already shown their credibility by winning other long-distance graded races with ease or have already collected a G1 win in the Kikuka Sho.

The jockey’s specific responsibilities throughout the race also help to significantly shape their ride’s performance to the point where many thought of them as major factors in success as well. Compared to the Kikuka Sho, this isn’t necessarily to the point of being the main reason however as the entrants are much more trained up to perform in the distance while the 3YO-only race is more luck-dependent on whether the entrant is naturally capable of having a lot of stamina. 

In the Spring Tenno Sho, the jockeys’ tactics to win are brinkmanship-based as they sought to readjust their ride’s positioning to both manage their stamina and to get the freest possible space for the inevitable spurt. The longer distance leaves more time for the moves to be made which thus alleviates the initial disadvantages that might come with the gate openings. That being said, there’s also the extra pressure on making sure that they aren’t running quicker than they should have and that they’re not running from the outside too much lest they have little experience in running longer distances beforehand.

Entrants

Favourites

Often well into the single-digits with their betting odds, the favourites possess the credentials, sky-high individual performances, and the pedigree which should allow them to deliver in the race.

Gate 3 – Admire Terra, the Grey Menace (Horse 5, 2 graded wins)

You might recognise Admire Terra for his funny showing in last year’s G1 Japan Cup where he runs his race despite his jockey Yuga Kawada having fallen off after a stumble at the gates which instantly nets disqualification. However, the peak of his success actually comes whenever jockeying legend Yutaka Take is riding him. While Kawada struggles to turn his potential into further success, Take’s instincts seem to click as he shows off his full potential many times.

In the 2024 Kikuka Sho, despite his higher odds, he was able to snag 3rd place after a gradual climb in positioning to being the pacesetter by the final corner. He won his first graded title in the 2025 Meguro Kinen which is at an upper-medium distance of 2500 metres. On his second graded title in this year’s Hanshin Daishoten, he broke the race record with ease through a powerful spurt after spending much of the race running close to the inside rail.

Entering the Spring Tenno Sho, Admire Terra comes off as the most well-prepared of the top 3 favourites. His training time shows him being capable of adapting to different tempos all the while showing a solid turn of foot. His jockey Take is also on a very hot streak with 3 graded wins just over the last month with 2 from last week. Combine that with his stunning win in the Hanshin Daishoten and you have a clear staying talent who is aiming to leave a big stamp as one of the country’s best.

Gate 7 – Croix du Nord, the Derby Winner (Colt 4, 5 graded wins including 3 G1s)

The second best son of staying legend and super-sire Kitasan Black, the champion of last year’s G1 Japanese Derby, and beforehand the conqueror of the G1 Hopeful Stakes the year before. Although he had disappointed in the G1 Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe and the Japan Cup after his Derby success, he bounced back hard this year. He immediately won the G1 Osaka Hai last month following what amounts to a well-sustained spurt which started after the third corner in which he’s able to catch up to the fiery-hot frontrunner Meisho Tabaru in time. 

Compared to the other favourites, Croix du Nord is special in the sense that he actually has little staying experience. While Kitasan Black himself had won the Spring Tenno Sho twice, his best-performing foals had not been trained to run in longer distances. The closest would be Yamanin Bouclier in last year’s Kikuka Sho although he tired out hard. That being said, Croix du Nord doesn’t appear to be worn out easily by the extra bit of distances he might have to run should he get an outer gate opening. 2 of his G1 wins in the Japanese Derby and the Osaka Hai are respectively from gate 13 and gate 15 with an added note that he ran from the outside up to the final corner in both races. His training time is among the fastest as his 7 furlong time is under 100 seconds, his 3F time is 36.9 seconds, and his 1F time is at a very sharp 11.3 seconds.

Another notable aspect in Croix du Nord’s contention lies in his main jockey Yuichi Kitamura. Arguably one of the most underrated out of the jockeys who work for the Japanese Racing Association, he has a notable bit of record in overperforming on long-shot contenders. He was able to snag 3rd place in the Oka Sho on 10th favourite Zippy Tune and had placed 4th in the same Hanshin Daishoten that Admire Terra won on 7th favourite Chevalier Rose with whom he also won the 2024 Stayer’s Stakes. The combination of both the jockey’s experience and a history of asserting slightly more stamina than usual adds to Croix du Nord’s contention for the race.

Gate 12 – Redentor, the Defending Champion (Horse 5, 2 graded wins including last year’s Spring Tenno Sho)

Already introduced earlier on in the introduction/context, Redentor is in a bit of a flux with his position. While he is entering the race as the 3rd favourite, there are a lot of question marks surrounding whether he’ll be able to succeed. His last race is his comeback attempt in the Kyoto Kinen where he’s able to clock in a fast L3F time of 33.6 seconds, but he otherwise finishes outside of the top 5 with 2nd place Eri King putting up a more absurd L3F time of 33.1 seconds. With his performance looking a bit too blunt, fans are worried whether he’ll get in a good enough shape for the race…

That being said, there are factors that might favour him in his attempt to win the race twice. He’s already the most proven stayer of the top 3 favourites as the defending champion so should he even be a bit ready for the race, he shouldn’t be tired out by the final straight. His training time also shows a clear attempt to improve on his spurt with a 3F time of 38.0 seconds which dropped down to 11.4 seconds for a 1F time. And that comes as he’s sandwiched between 2 training partners as well. Even if the results might not look as impressive as the other favourites, it’s still a fair bit of experience to keep in mind which could click in the actual race.

Redentor’s likely biggest grace will come down to his jockey Christophe Lemaire who is known as the top jockey in the JRA. Over the past decade, he has managed to win many long-distance races including 3 consecutive Kikuka Shos since 2023 out of a total of 5 wins and 3 Spring Tenno Shos in 2019, 2020, and 2023. The biggest indication of his prowess is that it’s not simply that he’s good in Japan; he won on stayers around the world. He claimed the 2011 G1 Melbourne Cup in Australia which is perhaps the most anticipated stayer race in the world and his home country France’s G1 Prix Royal-Oak in 2010. If there’s anyone who knows how to manage their ride’s stamina, Lemaire himself is a maestro in handling the distance.

Dark Horses

With odds between 10 and 30 to 50 depending on the favourites’ popularity, they look unremarkable compared to them. They do however have a notable history of placing well in graded titles and should the entries be stacked enough, even win at least 1 themselves. They simply appear to lack the “X-factor” needed to win the biggest championships in the country.

Gate 4 – Aqua Vernal (Mare 5)

Ridden by the fiery Kohei Matsuyama who won 2 Classics races this year, Aqua Vernal is more proven in the distance with her 2nd place in the Hanshin Daishoten this year as well as a win in the listed Manyo Stakes (which I can’t find the video of). She has the clear potential to excel in the race, but her spurt is arguably her biggest weakness as her L3F time of 34.9 in the Hanshin Daishoten is slower than 3rd place Danon Cima’s 34.7 even though he’s blocked on the final corner while she had the open field advantage as the rivalling pacesetter. Her best chance of winning will likely involve utilising the advantage of setting the pace should she be a frontrunner…

Gate 8 – Shin Emperor (Horse 5, 2 graded wins)

The full-blooded brother of the 2020 L’Arc winner Sottsass, Shin Emperor was practically promised a whole new destiny running in Japan only to find the walls closing in on reaching the highs of winning a G1. His dramatic fumble comes last year where his second graded win in the G2 Neom Turf Cup contrasts with his consecutive conga train of finishing outside the top 5 for the entire season. It doesn’t help as well that his asthma had flared up after the G1 Irish Champion Stakes which adversely affected his performance for the rest of the year. He is able to get into a bit of his promise back in this year’s Neom Turf Cup after its G1 promotion even as he failed to defend his title with a 4th place finish. 

With his jockey being Mirai Iwata as his main one in Ryusei Sakai is unavailable and this being his first time in staying distances, Shin Emperor is faced with big unknown factors. His health problems might also limit his stamina in the long term even if his last start might prove enough to his fans that he’s slowly getting back into shape. What is at least worth throwing out however is that he has a solid turn of foot which is proven through his training video and his European pedigree contains sires who have a clear record of having children who are able to run longer distances.

Gate 11 – Tagano Dude (Horse 5, 1 graded win)

With a main jockey in Yoshihiro Furukawa, Tagano Dude is on a slow yet gradual upswing. He won his first graded title in this year’s G3 Kokura Daishoten and was able to pull off the fastest L3F time of 34.8 seconds in the Osaka Hai soon after into 4th place. This is his first time attempting a long-distance race and Furukawa himself had never won one even after his massive breakthrough with a 1997 G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies win on Ein Bride. Does Tagano Dude have what it takes to push through to a win and will Furukawa be able to finally claim his second G1 after jockeying for so long?

EDIT: Furukawa himself was actually injured in a very recent race (yesterday at the time of editing) which means that Tagano Dude himself will be jockeyed by frequent short-license jockey Damian Lane. This unfortunate timing could slightly play to his advantage given that Lane won the very last Spring Tenno Sho on Redentor, but Lane might not be as well-acquainted with Tagano Dude’s preferences and strengths as Furukawa.

Gate 13 – Mystery Way (Gelding 8, 1 graded win)

The token runaway out of the entrants, Mystery Way broke through in one of the most exciting non-G1 races of last year – the G2 Copa Republica Argentina. He and his main jockey Hiroki Matsumoto are able to pull off a wire-to-wire win against hyped-up entrants Stinger Glass and Dee My the Kid under very small windows of opportunity of when to slow down and when to go fast. The performance is that of sheer acclaim over how flat-out thrilling it was especially when he’s able to win on a racetrack where the longer final straight should favour those with a strong spurt from the back of the pack.

This time, he’ll be running around a whopping 3200 metres which puts a massive question mark on whether he’ll be able to run as he would have wanted. He’s able to win in races that are between 2500-2600 metres, but an extra 3 furlongs are another thing entirely. Not to mention, he and Matsumoto are at their most comfortable when they’re able to ride from the front which is likely going to be contested by Aqua Vernal. However, in the best-case scenario, we can see a repeat of Seiun Sky’s iconic gambit in the 1998 Kikuka Sho. One where the winner’s jockey Norihiro Yokoyama urged him to slow down on the final corner to bait many entrants into spurting earlier than they should have. Could you imagine how funny it would have been had Mystery Way won in the same way?

Gate 15 – Hohelied (Mare 5, 1 graded win)

One of the rare female racehorses whose staying capability is known to the point of winning a graded title, she was the winner of last year’s Stayer’s Stakes where she edges out after running a whopping 3600 metres. Following that, she proves her capability soon after in this year’s Diamond Stakes where despite getting blocked on the final straight, she’s able to push herself into securing the top 5 once there’s an opening for her to go though. Her own pedigree, where her father Rulership also sired Redentor and her broodmare sire Stay Gold has a track record of having top stayers for his kids, shows her clear potential. 

The biggest challenge that she’ll be facing is that compared to others, she’s simply above-average. Compared to Redentor, she didn’t enjoy a quick turn of foot with her fastest L3F time being in the 2024 G2 Shion Stakes which happens to have the race record of 1:56.6. Compared to Admire Terra, she didn’t break the race record in her Stayer’s Stakes win and she was ahead by 0.75 (3 quarters) length ahead of 2nd place Meiner Campana.  Even compared to Croix du Nord’s in-theory possibility, she only has her main jockey Keita Tosaki as a main factor to actually help her pull off the win. She’s reliable in a race that is looking for more than that.

Handicapping

Essentially my predictions of who will go into the top 3 with 1 extra mention going to a contender outside the single-digit favourites who has a high chance at an upset, I feel that they are in the best possible form to win the race.

Based on my explanations, the top 3 picks are:

1. Admire Terra

Between his dominant Hanshin Daishoten win, Yutaka Take being in top form, and his clear experience as a stayer, Admire Terra is hitting his peak in the best possible time you could ask for. His training time shows his flexibility adapting to different tempos with the one constant being his turn of foot and compared to Redentor’s, he’s not off a long layout nor did he suffer from an injury. The Spring Tenno Sho might not be his to lose, but it sure isn’t one where he’ll lose out hard.

2. Croix du Nord

Despite his lack of experience in being a stayer, there’s actually a lot of factors that could go Croix du Nord’s way. He’s able to win G1s despite getting an outer gate opening, Yuichi Kitamura is largely reliable in his decision-making, and his fast training time engenders a good cardiovascular form that points toward both being ready for fast tempo and more hearty stamina. A win might be a stretch despite his popularity, but it can definitely put on an earnest fight to 2nd place.

3. Hohelied

If Redentor’s not in top form, Hohelied feels like a safe pick for 3rd place. She might not have shown the ceiling that the top 3 favourites have shown, but her race records point towards a mare who happens to find her specialty. Her Stayer’s Stakes win proves her stamina and her 5th place in the Diamond Stakes was down to her being blocked. Unless other entrants happen to also have an aptitude towards running in longer distances, Hohelied is likely to run to 3rd place.

Upset: Shin Emperor

Despite his asthma, his switch in jockey, and the Spring Tenno Sho being his first long-distance attempt, Shin Emperor’s varying question marks have a lot more positives than what you would expect. As mentioned previously, his European pedigree causes him to be related to notable stayers like Westerner who won the 2005 G1 Ascot Gold Cup in Britain. His improvement in form with a 4th place in this year’s Neom Cup Turf is also worth keeping in mind and his training video shows him running as lively as ever. Should everything line up, he can wreck some unexpected havoc for sure.