Do not hang your head, do not let your shoulders slump, do not stop – the flower will bloom someday.

So until then, keep moving without slacking; challenge with all your might, fight without arrogance.

If you do so, before long you will become a great blossom.

(Translation by a Reddit user called Kixisbestclone)

The Spring Tenno Sho is finally over – and history has been made. For what is only a decade since the Osaka Hai finally gained its rightful promotion to being a Group 1 race, a contender rose to the challenge to bid for the fabled Spring Triple Crown. As favourites falter under great expectations and the underdogs rise to the highest point, many are seeing this as one of the most fun races of the year.

Final Results (In a Nutshell)

Despite the Spring Tenno Sho being his first race that is at 3000 or more metres, fan favourite Croix du Nord triumphs with a victory over even established stayers. However, his win was not without a dramatic showdown in a photo finish in which he just barely reached the finishing line before major long shot Wurttemberg’s spurt by only 2 centimetres. Second favourite Admire Terra lags behind by half a length into third place due to a more “unoptimised” bit of positioning in the midfield and his spurt being less impressive than Wurttemberg’s.

Finishing Order

Sectional Times

Positioning at bends

Amateurish Analysis (Top 3)

Well, there has to be something about the best-performing racehorses in the race to warrant a deeper look into why they are able to excel as well as they did. In focusing on the top 3, we can look into both the moves made and the context surrounding their pedigree and their race records.

Croix du Nord

Compared to his G1 Osaka Hai win which comes down to a masterclass synergy between his jockey Yuichi Kitamura and himself, his Spring Tenno Sho victory can be summed up best in the next sentence. Holy shit is he able to run a good while longer! There are hints that he’s able to run a bit more than what you would normally expect for a racehorse whose experience largely comes in distances between 2000 and 2400m. As mentioned previously, he won the Derby and the Osaka Hai from an outer gate opening from which he spent up to the final corner running from the outside. Even on the softer turf that is synonymous to Longchamp Racecourse’s in the G3 Prix du Prince d’Orange, he’s able to resist what amounts to running in the trenches for a while to win against later Arc winner Daryz by a nose.

In the Spring Tenno Sho, Croix du Nord proved his grit very well. Pundits hailed how disciplined he is whenever he runs as he largely follows what Kitamura wants him to do with ease. In addition, he has a naturally high amount of stamina that can be utilised to make moves that would’ve tired others out mostly by running from the outside throughout the race. That happened as recently as in his Osaka Hai performance where he moved forward 800m before the finishing line to tail behind Meisho Tabaru before picking up speed once he reached the final straight. This made what amounts to a sustained spurt that allowed him to reach the worn-out Meisho Tabaru who was having a run of his life. 

What makes this run interesting however is that there isn’t really anything of note about what Kitamura had done to set up the ideal conditions for him. He largely ran about as usual: always angling from the outside and with the gutsy tendency to maintain his tempo to reach the end before his opponents. The most impressive aspect is that aside from a slow-down in speed on the top-left corner during the second half (that we’ll get to later), he has a lot more gas in him than many expected of him. Even if his final straight run proves a bit strained where he clearly tires out, it’s not hard to imagine an alternative reality where he’s trained up to be a top stayer of the country or even one where he puts up a fight in the G1 Kikuka Sho last year rather than be moved overseas to contend in the G1 Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe which turned out to be a disappointing expedition.

This run is a physical marvel that nets him his 4th G1 win and puts him in serious contention to make history. Fans now wonder whether he’ll be the first to claim the Spring Triple Crown after the Osaka Hai’s graded promotion in 2017. The competition will not get easier from there, but he surely will go down as one of the all-time greats in the country should he be able to claim the Takarazuka Kinen at the end of next month.

Wurttemberg

Wurttemberg was a serious underdog in the Spring Tenno Sho. He just got out of allowances class last year. He bottomed out of his first graded race that is the G3 Challenge Cup since the 2022 G1 Hopeful Stakes (that he also struggled in). And he’s assigned the main jockey in Fuma Matsuwaka whose records saw him having never won a race that’s over 3000m – not even a listed one. He had never won a graded title before and the only factors in his favour from the outside perspective is that he’s the son of Kitasan Black like Croix du Nord along with a lauded broodmare sire in French Deputy. Surely he’s only hitting some serious growth spurts now, right?

Maybe. Yet, look closer at Wurttemberg’s race records again and you can see a clear upward trajectory. In the 2025 G2 Kyoto Daishoten, he’s able to clock in a third fastest L3F time in the race at 34.5 seconds despite being blocked well from the back on the final corner which shows his sharp turn of foot. In the G2 Stayer’s Stakes soon after that Hohelied had won, he also got boxed in under the same circumstances, had to bypass the tired-out Pure Cian as well, and had to wait until Vermicelles moved leftward due to a whip use before he could charge through an opening. He clocked in the same L3F time there as the winner herself at 34 seconds. In the G3 Diamond Stakes this year, finally entering with a bit of recognition as the 4th favourite within the single digits, a stand-in jockey that is Australia-based Rachel King saw him record the same fastest L3F time as runner-up Feiren Kranz at 34.4 seconds to land in 4th place. This is despite being positioned further in the back as an end closer which necessitates bypassing many tired entrants on the final straight.

By the time of the Spring Tenno Sho, Wurttemberg has shown signs of clear improvement in each start. There’s little doubt that he might as well discover his calling as a staying diamond underneath the rough. With Matsuwaka back to jockey as usual, he sat at the back of the pack, conserved his stamina throughout the entirety of his race by simply matching the pace without spurting hard for a spot in the beginning, and made his moves before the second-to-last corner. A push to catch up with the rest, then a wide turn on the final corner, there were no gassed-out entrants right in front of him who would block his shot, and a heroic surge onward. He clocks in the fastest L3F time of 34.2 seconds without the unlucky predicaments that would have hampered his results and thus etched himself a few centimetres short of the biggest upset in the race’s history.

Admire Terra

My pick for the race’s winner had not quite done as well as I would have wished. Maybe his jockey Yutaka Take might have been a bit too conservative with pushing him to the limit at the right time. Maybe he positioned him more awkwardly towards the back in the assumption that his spurt might be more effective there after the Hanshin Daishoten showing. Maybe the extra furlong might have been too long for him. I doubt that the mentioned reasons reveal why he got a podium finish rather than a hopeful win.

In comparing the Hanshin Daishoten to the Spring Tenno Sho, there are clear similarities that I will elaborate on later. There’s a dispute in the front-running bid that dramatically shapes the pacing and it’s through this manner which might have shaped the outcome in unexpected ways. However, Admire Terra did not secure the most stamina-efficient position of hugging the inner rails. Rather, he had to run slightly towards the outside to eye up an easy opening for the spurt while Take keeps him restrained. In other words, Take tried to maintain the balance between preventing Admire Terra from potentially overexerting himself and ensuring that he’ll enjoy an open field to run to his quickest should he reach the final corner.

This means however that he’s in a good bit of challenge that adversely affects how he’ll be able to run his race. He’ll need to contend with Redentor who’s likely going to overtake and block his spot under Lemaire’s jockeying. Take will likely need to also worry about when a front-facing entrant will tire to the point where a pre-mediated wide turn is needed to save as much speed as possible even if it delays the timing for when to accelerate. And he’ll need to act well before late-surging opponents who will eye up the open lane for a hopeful win. 

Sadly enough, these are hard to keep track of when you are riding on a living being. And once Admire Terra was able to move to face the final straight, two racehorses might have directly got him beat – a worn-out Hohelied whom I’ll talk about after this and Wurttemberg who couldn’t ask for a better time to hit his strides than this race.

Amateurish Analysis (Other Competitors)

For the rest of the entrants, some have made moves that might have shaped the very way the race is run which makes for unexpected leaning that play to the advantage of others. This section is for those who either had done better than expected even if outside the top 3 or have shaped the race in a that might have tilted the results in favour of others.

Mystery Way, Hohelied, and Sunrise Soleil

The pacing of this year’s Spring Tenno Sho leans toward the faster end with the finishing time being 3:13.7; this makes the third fastest time overall after Kitasan Black’s 2017 win and Deep Impact’s masterpiece performance in 2006. This comes thanks to Mystery Way’s trademark runaway. He had done just about everything he could have done under this strategy especially given the longer distance and there’s even a glimmer of hope that he might have won. That came when he slowed down during the second half of the race (see the sectional times between 1600m and 2000m) which could see Hiroki Matsumoto pull off a Seiun Sky-esque recharge into spurt once others caught up on him.

However, the gambit has a very little window of opportunity simply for one reason – what if the racehorses start to make their move to try and frontrun? That’s the move that Hohelied, my third place pick, and Sunrise Soleil had made when they prematurely spurted to try and seize the lead. Sunrise Soleil was able to secure the lead on the final corner, but it comes at a great cost. He was tired out beyond relief and thus sunk down into 11th place. 

All the slow bit of tempo that Mystery Way had done otherwise is to let others rest for a bit to catch up on their breath and make their moves under less time constraint without prematurely spurting. This might have worked to Croix du Nord’s advantage most notably given his lack of experience beforehand as Kitamura’s most impactful move is a pretty conventional one that is going for the outside. With that, Croix du Nord is able to get the open field advantage to carry on the momentum on the final straight and clutch out the win. A more continually fast tempo, barring ethics surrounding the racehorses’ health, would have gone either in Admire Terra’s or Wurttemberg’s favour given their past experiences.

Hohelied on the other hand got second-to-last place. In addition to the premature spurt, her tiredness might have been amplified through her jockey Keita Tosaki’s inability to keep her restrained. Suffice to say, the winner of last year’s Stayer’s Stakes had ironically gassed out in the actual G1 race where her experience should have been a big boon to success. 

As for Mystery Way himself? 8th place surprisingly enough. That goes to show well he had done even in spite of everything that should have gone against him. He’s probably just a tad bit too undisciplined to keep his stamina in check even with his jockey in mind to which Matsumoto could, at best, time when to slow him down for a few seconds.

Redentor, Shin Emperor, and Aqua Vernal

The champion from last year, Rendentor, saw his results improve compared to his last start in the G2 Kyoto Kinen a few months ago. He is able to enter the top 5 with a decent bit of spurt from the back on the final straight to obtain a L3F time of 35.1 seconds. You can tell however how his long time spent resting and his fracture injury had negatively shaped his showing. Despite his staying credentials, he couldn’t pull off a spurt like the top 3 in a sign that points that he might have to do a bit more work before he could win another G1 further down the line. Even Lemaire couldn’t do much else, aside from conserving his stamina, to push him to his full potential especially compared to Wurttemberg and Aqua Vernal who are on a roll with their forms when it comes to longer distances.

Shin Emperor, my upset pick, placed outside the top 5 but given worries about his health, he had done about as well as you could have wanted even if he’s not as impressive as Croix du Nord. He’ll likely continue his unfortunate distinction of not having a G1 win for now, but there is a bit of good news to be had. He’s able to at least clock in a L3F time of 35.5 seconds even if he’s slower than those who finish ahead of him and he’s able to recover in time to pick up on his turn of foot on the final straight.

Aqua Vernal herself shows serious form even if she lands outside the top 3. In 4th place behind Admire Terra, she puts on a better fight compared to Hohelied and even if her acceleration is weak, it’s clear that she has the stamina to run the distance even at a faster pace provided there’s a window of opportunity for her jockey to get her going earlier than others. All that being said, it wouldn’t come as surprising if she soon wins the Stayer’s Stakes at the end of this year as the favourite.