(Translation originally done by the YouTube channel URA Umamusume Racing Archives with some editing from me for this article)
The road to go from rags to riches, to go from an inch to the distance, to go from the underdog to the legend. The NHK Mile Cup stands as an alternative between the 2 Classics in the Satsuki Sho and the Japanese Derby where those who are more attuned to shorter distances will find all the opportunities to succeed. Fans of Umamusume whose favourite characters include El Condor Pasa and Seeking the Pearl will find in this race the intersection between myth and chaos that act as an ink for a whole new legend…
Introduction & Context
The NHK Mile Cup is among one of the more recently inaugurated races in Japan that’s explicitly set to be graded at Group 1. Made specifically for 3-year olds, its first run came in 1996 which comes right around the first national golden age of sprinters and milers following Sakura Bakushin O, North Flight, Nishino Flower, and Yamanin Zephyr’s public acclaim. Sprinters and milers are short-distance runners whose greatest strength either comes from being able to essentially maintain their spurt for just over 1 minute for the former or their uncanny ability to both keep up with a quicker than average tempo while having a devastating turn of foot for the latter. These aspects are best displayed between 1200 metres and 1800m although as with many races, how they’ll develop will vary between the track layouts and how the actual run has developed.
Compared to the Classics like the Satsuki Sho and the Oka Sho, the NHK Mile Cup carries several unique aspects that went virtually all over the place. Its sponsorship (which is limited to trophy design) of Japan’s public broadcasting company NHK makes it easier to access on a public scale through its General TV channel. Up until 2001, it’s the only 3 year-old G1 that’s available for non-Japanese bred runners to enter as foreign-born entrants are barred from the Classics. Even so, it’s until 2010 when it is open to all kinds of racehorses who want to claim the glory. This aspect is what led to the rise of star runners like El Condor Pasa whose American-bred background made him ineligible to enter the 1998 Classics even though public perception now regards him as the best of the Golden Generation.
Nowadays, winning the race often nets the respect of being the best miler of the generation. At worst, the champion would be seen as the most promising. There’s only 1 de-jure trial race which is the G2 New Zealand Cup where the top 3 enjoy the berth to enter the race. However, the unorthodox nature of the NHK Mile Cup means that de-facto trials are all over the place. A good number of entrants can enter the race should they tire out of running in the Satsuki Sho’s longer distance. Fillies who are cracked as milers are especially susceptible to entering it as a considerably safer alternative to the Japanese Oak’s dramatic increase in distance. And a handful might even gamble on winning this for a slither of hope in becoming the Derby champion.
The last winner from last year, ineligible to defend the title, is Panja Tower whose race records are full of ups and downs so far. A son of Tower of London who won the 2019 G1 Sprinter’s Stakes, Panja Tower made an immediate splash on his first graded title that is the 2024 G2 Keio Hai Nisai Stakes as a dark horse entrant. Hype surrounding his potential tends to come through rocky havoc as he placed in the double-digits in the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes, failed to win the G3 Falcon Stakes in the beginning of his 3YO season as the favourite, then rebound unexpectedly to claim the NHK Mile Cup. At the time of writing, Panja Tower is enjoying a solid career afterwards with a 3rd graded title from the G3 Keeneland Cup. His connections are probably annoyed at him placing in the top 5 as one of the clear favourites without truly winning the race which includes Australia’s G1 Golden Eagle, the G2 1351 Turf Sprint in Saudi Arabia, and most recently a 4th place back in Japan in the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen.
Other past winners most notably include El Condor Pasa, whose first G1 title looked so effortlessly done that fans wonder whether he might stand as one of Japan’s best one day; Seeking the Pearl, who later sets the ground for Japan’s aspirational rivalry with Europe as a whole from her win in the 1998 G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest; and King Kamehameha, who immediately followed his win with a Japanese Derby win in 2004 before he became one of the country’s most influential sires.
Race Layout and General Assumption
The best way you could describe the NHK Mile Cup’s typical layout is one of ruthless, ruthless pacing. Right from the start from the top-right corner, entrants run from the left up the slope quickly which then gradually leads them downward until right before the bottom-left corner. Not only do they have to be ready to run fast enough already to climb up the slope, but they’ll need to maintain that speed due to the gradual slope after and on top of that, there’s another notable uphill slope on the final straight. There’s unlikely going to be a time for a breather because the racehorse has to be running close to top speed all the way through.
The chaotic layout essentially puts massive pressure on racehorses, especially designated milers, to perform with the assumption that they might as well be sprinters who are running at an extended distance. This in turn means that major upsets are more bound to happen especially in recent years should they not be prepared to run at near-top speed. It’s still possible for the single-digit favourite to win, but you’re guaranteed to be surprised if a runner with what’s at best a small following will start to pop off. The 2024 race for example saw Logi Leon place 3rd even though he never won a graded title both before and after his performance. Meanwhile, in 2023, Champagne Color pulled off a notable win as the 9th favourite even as he faded away right into obscurity.
The race, from the jockeying perspective, is one that necessitates quick thinking to avoid getting into any blockage all the while identifying the very small window of opportunity to make the best of their ride’s performance. The shorter distance means that perfect timing is required to ensure that the ridden racehorse will be able to have just about enough energy in them for a spurt on the final straight after going through multiple undulations. Positioning concerns come from the first furlong or two as to try and avoid being surrounded by anyone who might get tired enough to slow down by the final corner.
Entrants
Favourites
Often well into the single-digits with their betting odds, the favourites possess the credentials, sky-high individual performances, and the pedigree which should allow them to deliver in the race.
Gate 4 – Cavallerizzo, the Asahi Hai Champion (Colt 3, 1 graded win including the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes)
The first foal of Saturnalia to win a G1 in a glowing praise to double-Oaks winner Cesario’s legacy as one of the greatest broodmares of all time, Cavallerizzo is looking off his gloves so far. In his 3YO season, he initially entered the Satsuki Sho as one of the top 3 favourites only to tire out considerably on the homestretch to land in the double digits. His training time as well also points to big worries regarding whether he needs to develop his body given that his 5F time on the slope is a slow 58.9 seconds. Worst of all, his seeming arch-rival Admire Quads might even be looking to be better than him entering the race although we’ll try and get to that later on.
Cavallerizzo’s peak so far however shows him to be exceptionally strong as a potential prospect in being a miler. He shows a sharp turn of foot in his G1 win which allows him to catch up to Diamond Knot. Before then, he was able to go toe-to-toe with Admire Quads in the G2 Daily Hai Nisai Stakes despite placing 2nd while being 5 lengths ahead of everyone else. And as a big bit of note surrounding his potency, he typically sits midfield of the pack with a lot of weight being placed on his spurt in a distance that’s likely to be unforgiving for those who are hoping to overtake due to its faster average speed. He can bite hard should he be able to get his form back.
The good news for that is that Cavallerizzo will be ridden by Atsuya Nishimura who’s hitting an incredible high with his performance this year. He’ll be to his ride what Christophe Lemaire was to Redentor in the Spring Tenno Sho. Nishimura will be fresh off his G2 Kyoto Shimbun Hai win on Congestus this weekend, but his success goes beyond that. Many of his graded wins are between 1200 and 1800m including a dramatic breakthrough G1 claim on the 2024 Sprinter’s Stakes on Lugal. Kawada might be the biggest threat for the race, but he’ll be bound by his cautiousness to prioritise his ride’s safety. Nishimura’s ability to position well and identify gaps to break through makes him almost entirely suited to claim the race if needed.
Gate 7 – Diamond Knot, Slaying Sprinter (Colt 3, 2 graded wins)
From the day when he’s picked up by famed racehorse owner Makoto Kaneko, Diamond Knot is set to conquer one specialty – sprint. With ex-jockey Yuichi Fukunaga as his trainer, he took a while to get out of maiden class as a 2YO but once he’s done so, he starts to get the ball rolling. He placed second in the open Momiki Stakes being able to chase after upcomer Lily Joie, won the G2 Keio Hai Nisai Stakes in a dominant manner, and then snags 2nd place in the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes by frontrunning. In the G3 Falcon Stakes to start his 3YO season, he ran on-pace to tail behind the frontrunner until the final straight where he practically flung far to claim his second graded win with ease.
Entering the NHK Mile Cup, Diamond Knot enjoys both the experience, the training, and the partnership to make his goals into a reality. He ran between 1200 and 1600m to show his affinity with the high tempo that tends to come with shorter distances and has done remarkably well since he won his maiden race. Fukunaga got him prepped up furthermore with his training time showing him doing well running on the slope with a 4F time of 53.3 seconds with a turn of foot down to 12.2 for his 1F time. His main jockey Yuga Kawada often finds his biggest success in short distances as he also primarily rides current top miler Jantar Mantar along with a recent win in the listed (read: Japan’s self-graded G1) Kashiwa Kinen on consistent dirt runner Wilson Tesoro.
All that being said, Diamond Knot’s candidacy hovers around a spectre of doubt on whether he’ll be able to perform well in the NHK Mile Cup. Fukunaga seems to really love highlighting his optimal distance as being 1400m which is going to raise a good number of questions. His Asahi Hai performance, great as it was despite the loss, is unlikely going to happen here as many entrants will enjoy a more developed body to catch up to him, a better idea on their positioning, and more precise training as milers. His sprinting specialty also means that while he’s able to reach top speed and maintain it for a while, chances are high that he might tire out as soon as the longer distance starts to affect him. Lastly, Kawada has a more cautious kind of riding which disincentivises any gambits or high-risk moves being made. If Diamond Knot is going to win the NHK Mile Cup and assert himself as the top short-distance runner of his generation, it will likely come through sheer “built different” brute force.
Gate 10 – Ecoro Alba, the Vinted Miler (Colt 3, 1 graded win)
If Diamond Knot highlights the value of experience and short-distance prowess that would have him run away with a win in the NHK Mile Cup, Ecoro Alba represents the importance of pedigree. His father is one of Japan’s top milers at the turn of the decade, Mozu Ascot, who is sired in turn by Britain’s greatest miler Frankel. On his mareline side, his broodmare sire French Deputy saw his biggest success in winning the 1995 G2 Jerome Handicap Stakes in the United States before standing as stud in Japan with his best children often taking part in shorter distances including multiple NHK Mile Cup winners even.
As for experience, Ecoro Alba is more lightly raced. This marks his first race of his 3YO season following a lengthy break. That being said, his race records aren’t anything to be seen as a slouch. His 2YO season saw him win the G3 Saudi Arabia Royal Cup through a blistering spurt on the final straight which led to the fastest L3F time of 33.2 seconds. In the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes, he placed 4th due to the softer turf making his spurt a more hardgoing challenge although he’s able to put on an amiable effort. The aforementioned spelling that comes after is said to have been a massive boon as it allows his body to develop more thoroughly without being stifled by the pressure from running.
Given that this is his first start of the year, Ecoro Alba will enter the race with questions surrounding whether he’s able to maintain his composure from last year and whether he’ll be able to keep up with others who are more experienced. He does however enjoy numerous benefits. His training time looks great with both a sharp 5F time of 65.1 seconds, a 3F time of 36.2, and a 1F time of 11.1 in anticipation of the fast pace. His physical form looks impressive enough where he is more muscular thanks to his rest. He doesn’t appear to mind working with different jockeys as his designated one in Kazuo Yokoyama will be his fourth which shows that he’s not deterred by different personalities. Lastly, his lineage alone screams “miler talent” on paper so should everything line up well for him, he is sure to put on a fight.
Gate 17 – Rodeo Drive, Saturnalia’s Aspiring Dreamer (Colt 3)
Rodeo Drive is among one of Saturnalia’s second batch of foals and also among his most promising ones. Although there’s another colt by Saturnalia in Cavallerizzo who won the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes last year, he is in a slump over the past month due to his long spelling and is trying to work back into his form. Rodeo Drive, on the other hand, is improving rapidly since his debut in December of last year which saw him dominate his starts until his first graded attempt in the New Zealand Cup. He almost claimed the race given that he has the fastest L3F time out of anyone, but Reservation had him beaten by a neck through his gutsy push to the finishing line.
Rodeo Drive raced only 3 (going on 4) times at the time of writing which include the New Zealand Cup, but there are two key advantages in his favour. His jockey Damian Lane is especially attuned with racing in shorter distances as he won many G1s in similar distances in his native Australia and had won 2019 G1 Victoria Mile and the 2022 G1 Mile Championship in Japan. His training time saw him clock a faster 6F time of 82 seconds and a turn of foot with a 3F time of 37.7 down to 11.7 in a 1F time with the hopes of readying his spurt on the final straight. His strong showings so far highlight his promise as a miler and it wouldn’t be surprising if he joins Cavallerizzo as the second G1-winning foal of Saturnalia. The main question however is on how well he’ll deliver in a race that’s infamous for seeing many shock results.
Dark Horses
With odds between 10 and 30 to 50 depending on the favourites’ popularity, they look unremarkable compared to them. They do however have a notable history of placing well in graded titles and should the entries be stacked enough, even win at least 1 themselves. They simply appear to lack the “X-factor” needed to win the biggest championships in the country.
Due to the race’s history of unexpected major upsets and overperformances, there will be a lot of names on this section so it’s worth keeping in mind those who are likely going to pull an upset.
Gate 5 – Ghillies’ Ball (Filly 3, 1 graded win)
A daughter of Epiphaeneia, Ghillies’ Ball starts her 3YO season with a graded attempt in the G3 Fairy Stakes as the anticipated second favourite with Lemaire as her main jockey. It’s a disaster which saw her place in the double digits which then led to a massive shift in expectation. Many thought of her as overhyped, she got a switch in jockey to the younger and more inexperienced Koji Nishizuka, and she soon entered the G2 Fillies’ Revue to try and enter the Oka Sho. She’s the 10th favourite with a jockey who isn’t as known as the likes of Keita Tosaki and an awful performance on her previous race.
What happened next was a wholly impressive showing that does little to justify her high odds. She left the gates in a bad mood and needs to be settled down by Nishizuka. However, she’s able to evade getting blocked on the homestretch through serious bits of manoeuvring that’s helped by her jockey to win her first graded title in a very flashy way. With her training time for the NHK Mile Cup, almost everything screams “likely winner” as her 6F time of 82.8 seconds follows through with a much faster time compared to Rodeo Drive’s down to a 3F time of 36.8 and a 1F time of 11.1. If there’s a value pick to keep in mind, she might be the one.
Gate 6 – Gene King (Colt 3)
A Contrailing whose frontrunning attempts faltered significantly up to the G2 Spring Stakes, he got a major rework in his positioning in the New Zealand Cup which proved to be a much better fit. His surge might not allow him to catch up on Reservation and Rodeo Drive, but it’s a showing that placed him well at home. His jockey will be the youngster Arata Saito who’s looking for his first G1 win, but has a smidge of graded success running in short distances with his first graded win being the 2020 G3 CBC Sho. His biggest prospect of success however sits in his training time which shows a turn of foot and a snappy 4F time of 51.8 seconds. Should everything line up, he’ll make for an ideal G1 champion for both his sire and his jockey.
Gate 8 – Lorbeerkranz (Colt 3)
The son of 3-time G1 champion Satono Diamond whose stud career proves humbling, he got out of maiden in a 2000m race, but has then spent his first 2 graded attempts in disappointment. Despite lagging behind many of the hot prospects, he started to hit his strides in the G3 Mainichi Hai where he almost won the race if not for Altramuz’s very sharp spurt in the final straight. With Kohei Matsuyama as his jockey and with a solid training time running on the slope, Lorbeerkranz is hoping to further improve his performances all the while rooting for his jockey to carry on his exceptional mindset this year to land him his first G1 title.
Gate 9 – Thunderstruck (Colt 3, 1 graded win)
The winner of the G3 Shinzan Kinen at the beginning of this year, Thunderstruck entered the G3 Churchill Downs Cup right after in hopes for an easy win. That sadly did not surface as he placed double digits despite being jockeyed by Lemaire who will carry on as his main one for this race. The main concern largely rests in his very slow training time which hints at best a rest-and-relaxation warm up to not get overworked. However, it’s hard to say whether his 1 graded win is a mismatch in jockeying assumptions given that he’s ridden by German-born Thore HammerHansen who’s only on a 1-month riding license.
Gate 11 – Admire Quads (Colt 3, 1 graded win)
Once one of the more hyped-up 2YOs from last year, Admire Quad’s showings has proved itself to be rocky. Having struggled to add another graded title onto his belt, he’s running into the risk of fatigue from racing many times with his 3rd place in the G2 Yayoi Sho and then his bottoming out of the Satsuki Sho. All that being said, his training time appears to suggest that he doesn’t mind such a stacked schedule and with Ryusei Sakai as his main jockey, he’ll be bidding his experiences to build forward to his hopeful G1 win. All things considered, he might be in better shape than Cavallerizzo despite everything that went down.
Gate 12 – Anduril (Colt 3)
Once thought of as a possible Triple Crown contender in the beginning of his 2YO season, everything didn’t go quite as planned for Anduril. He bottomed out of the G1 Hopeful Stakes as the top favourite and then he lagged well behind others in the G3 Churchill Downs Cup for his second graded attempt. Anduril showed serious promise in how well he dominated his first 2 races, but that has yet to translate itself into conquering graded titles. A win here will be a massive sign that he’s back in form that will bring to mind Panja Tower.
Gate 14 – Valsecito (Colt 3)
Valsecito dominated his debut race that led him to emerge as an exciting new prospect last year. Too bad that his next few races afterward show him lagging behind on his promise that made fans excited about him. With his jockey Yuichi Kitamura, Valsecito at least has a main jockey who is likely going to understand his preferences better with a potential instinctive move on pushing him to his limit at the very right time. However, such a possibility also means that he will need to go further beyond his underperformance to tap into the exhilarating win that proves reminiscent of his debut breakthrough.
Gate 15 – Reservation (Colt 3, 1 graded win)
Man, how painful must it be to win the New Zealand Trophy as the main trial for the NHK Mile Cup only to be rated well below the runner-up? Reservation took his time to get out of maiden class, but what follows after is a bit of a surprise in his graded win. He’ll be jockeyed by Yusuke Hara for this race who is actually on a roll with 2 graded wins this year even though he has never won any before. Being a seeming frontrunner on a racecourse that favours strong spurts, Reservation has a serious challenge in his hand, but it’s not unheard of for someone like him to win the race from that position with neutered expectations…
Gate 16 – Ask Ikigomi (Colt 3, 1 graded win)
The champion of the Churchill Downs Cup, Ask Ikigomi swings through thanks to the jockeying of Sakai. With Tosaki as his main jockey, Ask Ikigomi has the major advantage in manoeuvring around should he be able to find the gap to close in on time. The key problem is that he has only raced twice and while there’s a perk to be had in prioritising the growth of his body, it’s hard to say to what extent does his win come down to underestimated physical sharpness or if it’s down to a smidge of luck. Kudos for him, his training time on the slope is noteworthy as he’s able to reach a 4F time of 51.8 seconds which might be among the quickest of anyone so far. This might make him well-prepared for the undulations…
Handicapping
Essentially my predictions of who will go into the top 3 with 1 extra mention going to a contender outside the single-digit favourites who has a high chance at an upset, I feel that they are in the best possible form to win the race.
Based on my explanations, the top 3 picks are:
1. Ecoro Alba
Ecoro Alba might not have raced much, but his training time, his clear bulkiness, and turn of foot might make him a favourite who’s most likely to win the race. It’s worth keeping in mind that his worst finish so far in the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes was on softer turf which might have made his spurt more sluggish. With the turf in the NHK Mile Cup looking to be firmer, he is likely going to thrive to claim his second graded title with ease.
2. Admire Quads
He might have run a lot this year, but all signs appear to point towards him not tiring out that easily – and if anything can recover from even the most stinging of defeats. His training time on the slope suggests a quick recovery from his disastrous showing in the Satsuki Sho where he gassed out hard and he’s now back in the distance that he’s most comfortable at. The combination of both experience running in longer distances along with a jockey in Sakai makes Admire Quads someone who could carry on even after he reaches the homestretch.
3. Rodeo Drive
Through his sharp training time along with a proven jockey in Lane, Rodeo Drive is acting like a clear main claimant to usurp Cavallerizzo as the breadwinner of Saturnalia’s progenies. He might not have won a graded title, but his showing simply is too good for him to pass on and while it’s unknown for certain if he’ll be able to win the race, he definitely has the kick to make for a very competitive endeavour.
Upset: Ghillies’ Ball
To me, Ghillies’ Ball feels like the easiest upset pick in the world for the NHK Mile Cup. Her showing in the Fillies’ Revue is simply too good to overlook as a fluke and it’s clear that her partnership with Nishizuka makes for a formidable duo that’s terrifying to go up against. Bettors might have their eyes on the likes of Diamond Knot and Ecoro Alba, but a filly with an extraordinary high like Ghillies’ Ball would not prove surprising in retrospect should she win the NHK Mile Cup right from underneath anyone’s nose.
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