It’s not just one step forward, but the accumulation of resolve forged from relentless training and a deep desire to hone one’s potential.

It’s not just a single mere victory, but a fragment of a rich story, one that continues onto the next challenge and prevails, stirring people’s hearts.

That is why this moment is so precious – why everyone risks their very lives upon it.

(Translation by the Umamusume Wiki on Rhein Kraft’s JRA Portrait of the Bucephalus with minor edits by me)

The premier race for younger short-distance specialists is over and a new chapter unfolds for the generation. One of the fan favourites clinches the title in the hopes of becoming one of the best under his G1 glory despite the fast pace as many found their hopes sink under reality. There are no underdogs to rise above the ashes, no miracle that redefines being a miler, and yet not a single day goes by without a legacy to boot.

Final Results (In a Nutshell)

A dramatic photo finish thanks to the blazing pacing saw the rise of a newly crowned miler to keep an eye on. Rodeo Drive edges out Ask Ikigomi by a nose even as the latter’s form shows rapid improvements over the course of his race records so far. In addition, the finishing time of 1:31.5 makes for the second fastest time. Lagging behind by 1.25 length is Admire Quads in 3rd place in what could be best summed up as a stunning recovery from his Satsuki Sho failure to prove his worth as a miler even as his G1 win continues to loom far.

Positions at Bends

Sectional Times

Amateurish Analysis (Top 3)

Well, there has to be something about the best-performing racehorses in the race to warrant a deeper look into why they are able to excel as well as they did. In focusing on the top 3, we can look into both the moves made and the context surrounding their pedigree and their race records.

Rodeo Drive

My pick for third place has punched well to secure his first graded title – and it’s a G1! The success puts him as the second foal of Saturnalia to win a title of that caliber after Cavallerizzo whose performance didn’t quite go the way many would have wanted him to go. I will have to admit that this great bit of showing would make you wish that this isn’t the apex of his career and that he’ll go on to win more graded titles including G1s in the future. It’s not every day that you get to see someone like him go through a meteoric rise to success with his sharp turn of foot.

In terms of his performance through the race, you can see the combination of both his natural strengths and his jockey Damian Lane’s experiences in shorter distances coming into play. He ran towards the outside well in the midpack for almost the entirety of the race until the final corner which means that he won’t bear the brunt from trying to seize the ideal position around the front. His disciplined attitude allows him to eye up a more open field on the final straight on which to deliver his spurt. Whatever glimpse of potential he has shown in his G2 New Zealand Cup showing has been unleashed in full. He shows what could be described best as an intrinsic example of an end closer in Umamusume terms as he went from being among the last 5 entrants to leave the final corner to pull off the fastest L3F time of 33.3 seconds.

The combination of his outside positioning until the final straight along with his bountiful energy to pull off an electric spurt points toward a promising implication. With the extra bit of distance and speed he’ll have to carry even if he’s in a mile-long race, it could point towards his possible aptitude of going up to around 2000 metres. It might be a stretch of course and we can’t say for certain if he’s built for it, but his seeming preferences as a surger along with his stamina even after the quick pace adds a bit of flexibility similar to Museum Mile. It’ll be preferable if his connections ought to keep him specialised as a miler and to go for longer-distance races later on as he gets older.

That being said, there’s a bit of dirty moves made by Lane from his jockeying. A Twitter post suggested that he might have gotten Rodeo Drive to push his head just far enough to clutch out a win against Ask Ikigomi. Another post complained, even with an admission that they’re rooting for the runner-up, that he used his whip too many times and thus could be argued as a reason for demoting the racehorse. At least for the latter does he get fined for the excessive use even if the whip design now means that racehorses shouldn’t be hurt by it under any capacity. It’s likely however that he’ll be barred from racing in Japan for a set amount of time which should incentivise Rodeo Drive’s connections to find a jockey to partner up with him on a “full-time” basis.

Ask Ikigomi

I might have really, really underestimated Ask Ikigomi. He’s actually stronger than what I had thought him as. Fans can chalk up the loss to the “jockey difference” between Keita Tosaki and Lane, but to say so would wholly undermine the strengths of Ask Ikigomi who had only lost out by centimetres despite racing only three times at the time of writing. He has shown the sharp spurt, the ability to keep up well with the fast tempo, and the seeming stamina to persevere through both the outside gate opening and the blistering pace to make a seriously competitive endeavour.

As the son of Lord Kanaloa whose kids often tend to excel especially well between 1200-1800m, Ask Ikigomi’s sireline justifies his strong performance. What is worth noting however is that he’s been jumping between different jockeys. In his debut, Atsuya Nishimura rode him to victory. In his second start that is the G3 Churchill Downs Cup, Ryusei Sakai positioned him as a frontrunner to claim his first graded title with slightly underestimated ease. Now, he’s ridden by Tosaki who positioned him more in the midfield towards the outside to a near-win endeavour. This suggests one of his biggest strengths in being able to adjust to different jockeys and their preferred positions to continuously deliver strong showings. A chill attitude like that is sure to push him onward to greater glories.

Admire Quads

One of the most interesting racehorses to talk about in the race is Admire Quads. He won 1 graded title, placed third 3 times, and his last start should have seen him be considerably tired. Everyone knows now that his Satsuki Sho performance was a disaster and while he does have the outer gate opening then, it doesn’t quite excuse the fact that he’s so gassed out by the final corner that he slowed down to a double digits placement. This should put a big weight on him to underperform in the NHK Mile Cup owing to long-term fatigue given that he also ran in the G2 Yayoi Sho as a trial for the first Triple Crown race. 

Yet, his performance here is a notable sign that points toward his ability to recover well from what amounts to a marathon. Much like Rodeo Drive and Ask Ikigomi, Admire Quads was positioned towards the outside albeit from the front half as expected from Sakai’s jockeying. What’s notable is that there’s a good bit of discipline in Admire Quads himself to be able to resist the blazing speed to go onward to place 3rd in this race. Sakai actually restrained him for the first half of the race when he’s going uphill which allows him to have enough stamina to actually keep going even as others tire out on the final straight. This move in turn allows him to clock in a relatively impressive L3F time of 34.2 seconds as a pace chaser. 

Fans can make fun of Sakai for not doing as well on turf as on dirt, but this decision-making is a great sign of the two’s chemistry together in this race. It feels more like a matter of if-not-when for when Sakai himself will get another G1 win on turf; it wouldn’t be surprising should he get it in either a sprinting-oriented or miler-based race. If Admire Quads can continue with his development, it wouldn’t be far off for him to be the one to help his jockey snag a G1 together.

Amateurish Analysis (Other Competitors)

For the rest of the entrants, some have made moves that might have shaped the very way the race is run which makes for unexpected leaning that play to the advantage of others. This section is for those who either had done better than expected even if outside the top 3 or have shaped the race in a that might have tilted the results in favour of others.

Lorbeerkranz

All things considered, it’s increasingly clear that Lorbeerkranz is improving rapidly from each start to the point where you can no longer deny his presence in the race. While his race records point toward his spurt as his advantage given that he’s able to clock in 33-34 seconds for his L3F time, his performance here might have contained a small yet consequential mistake from his jockey. Kohei Matsuyama might be peaking in an ideal time as a jockey, but his whip use on the final straight from the left has caused Lorbeerkranz to swing to his right as to go uncomfortably near to Admire Quads. This cancelled the chance of his spurt being used to his full potential and thus forced Matsuyama to readjust the position again, shedding away precious seconds as Rodeo Drive and Ask Ikigomi were running in full speed to overtake him with ease. Had the whip been used towards the right instead? Chances are that we could have both yet another upset champion in the race along with Satono Diamond finally getting a foal who’s good enough to win a G1.

Diamond Knot

Initially among the favourites for his experience and his promise as a sprinter who happens to run well in a mile, Diamond Knot lands in the top 5 at least. Straddling between being a frontrunner and running on-pace, you can see why Yuichi Fukunaga sees him more strictly within his intended specialty. The fast tempo might be right up his alley for most of the race, but the final straight was when you can see him trying to muster up more stamina to try and unleash his spurt. I don’t think his jockey Yuga Kawada can do anything about the extra furlong to win the race. Against more clearly specialised milers, Diamond Knot is able to put on a fight, but he’s well on the clock for when others can beat him with ease through sheer spurt power. At least he’ll have the G1 Sprinter’s Stakes to look forward to later on this year as a true test to his specialty.

Ecoro Alba

My pick as the winner might have admittedly put on one of the more disappointing showings in the race. Under the jockeyship of Kazuo Yokoyama, he had almost everything lined up well for him to leave his mark. He swung from the outside on the final corner, got a nice bit of kick to the point of clocking in a L3F time of 33.7 seconds, quickly recovers his momentum after Rodeo Drive moves out of his way… and placed 9th despite his numerous advantages. You can chalk his showing to how far back he’s been placed since the beginning of the race where he failed to secure his spot from within the midpack. However, this didn’t quite dispel the fact that he didn’t look as scary as Rodeo Drive, Ask Ikigomi, and Admire Quads. If anything, this showing might suggest that he could well be weaker than Ghillies’ Ball and even Cavallerizzo given that the two’s placement could at least be chalked to brutal blockage. This humbling experience dampens my expectations around him and while I wouldn’t rule out any possibility of him winning another graded title in the future, his G1 contention feels well out of reach unless he gets an insane bit of growth not in his build but more so from his showing.

Cavallerizzo and Ghillies’ Ball

The champion of the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes and the unexpected winner of the G2 Fillies’ Revue (also my upset pick) have fallen victims to one of the most blasted predicaments in horseracing – getting blocked. The two saw their full potential get utterly neutered in the process of trying to cross the finishing line simply because there isn’t a real avenue for them to pass through unless one racehorse happens to swing in response to a whip. Bad luck is sure to haunt them, but an inside look paints a notable picture.

For Ghillies’ Ball, her L3F time is actually pretty respectable for someone who placed in the double digits at 34.6 seconds. You can see at the final straight that Koji Nishizuka has some solid reads through trying to make a spurt when there’s enough of a distance between the entrants to make full use of the speed. However, there quite simply isn’t any gap that’s safe enough for her to pass through which limits the degree of which she can run up to full speed. And in addition, given that the top placers are swinging from the outside, Nishizuka failed to identify the initiative to go for the wide turn and allow Ghillies’ Ball to enjoy the open lane for her spurt. The form is honestly there, but the jockeying inexperience was shown here at its fullest. You simply hope that an extra bit of learning will soon help the two to push over the lines.

By contrast, Cavallerizzo could be best described as someone who is struggling to work back to form, but he needs more training should he want to reach new heights. Sure, he got blocked even more heavily than Ghillies’ Ball and it looks like Nishimura has put most of his heavy thinking on a lower-graded race. All that being said, there isn’t any kind of sharpness in his turn of foot which means he’s more prone to slowing down as soon as he comes in close contact with another racehorse that he needs to manoeuvre around. His L3F time thus points toward a relatively slower 35 seconds which isn’t exactly the most complimentary to him. His slow training time beforehand might be a worrisome sign that he’s in a slump, but it seems more like his long spelling prior to his bad Satsuki Sho showing might have adversely shaped how he’ll be able to run along with other racehorses on top of revealing the limits of his distance proficiency. He will need partners for future training so that he will be able to navigate his way around other entrants.