“It shines brightly for just a moment, then it drifts freely upon the waves.

“As each one pursues their way of life, I too have my own aspirations.

“Like a roaring fire, I will forever burn bright.”

(Translation by the Umamusume Wiki)

Just because the final jewel is the newest doesn’t mean it’s any less valuable than the others. Just because a fighter is late to the battle doesn’t make her any weaker than the rest. Just because the horizon closes in on history doesn’t mean that miracles won’t ever happen at dawn. Just as the sakuras hibernate until spring awakens, so emerges a hero as champions slumber.

Introduction and Context

Prior to the Shuka Sho’s inauguration in 1996, Japan had its own equivalent to the Triple Crown for fillies that fans tend to refer to as the “Triple Tiara.” They consist of the Oka Sho, the Japanese Oaks (also known as the Yushun Himba), and the Queen Elizabeth II Cup (formerly known as the Victoria Cup from 1970 to 1975) from 1976 with the latter also being open to older mare runners. The Shuka Sho itself was established to branch out more Group 1 races for the fillies with the first Triple Tiara champion, Mejiro Ramonu in 1987, being the only one to have claimed all three legs of the original triplet prior to the renovation. The other champions, now sitting at six excluding Ramonu, all won with the newly established designated third leg as their final trial.

The recency of the Shuka Sho, combined with its more unconventional distance difference in terms of pattern, led it to not being seen as among the country’s definite Classic races. Its distance of 2000 metres compared to the Oaks’s 2400 makes it stick out a tad bit awkwardly with its most unique challenge (which we’ll get to later in the Race Layout and General Assumption) being that it’s the middle ground between middle-distance experts and prospective milers with the potential to extend by a few furlongs up. This aspect makes for a dynamic bit of confrontation where the upcoming starts for the winner, barring the potential Triple Tiara success, will vary massively in terms of distance aptitude.

This year, the Shuka Sho saw more hype than usual based on the unfortunate injuries and health issues that led to many top prospects having to skip out the race. The likelihood that we get a trio of talents who wins one leg each is a certainty. However, the 3-year old crop this year feels more top-heavy compared to other generations who are currently running with many of the more talented names especially seeing many career-derailing injuries that pushed their connections to prioritise going through allowances rather than compete in all three legs or rest up until next year. One clear favourite of the race sticks out on the back of her dominant showings even after a year-long layoff when she resumed her run in June. Time will tell whether she’ll realise her skyrocketing expectations or if an unexpected winner emerges out of the blue…

Race Layout and General Assumption

Taking place in Kyoto Racecourse with the inner rail being used compared to the G1 Spring Tenno Sho, the key defining aspect of the Shuka Sho’s layout is its less extreme undulation on the top-right corner. While there’s still the uphill section that goes up by 2% up until over half the race’s length, there’s a downhill undulation just soon after which makes for a less testing bit of stamina check for most runners. This in turn makes for a more welcoming bit of change compared to Tokyo where the undulations combined with the longer distance easily weeds out natural milers from promising middle-distance runners.

This additionally means that much of the race is going to boil down to being a challenge between the two broad specialists. Throughout its history, the Shuka Sho flip-flops in the pattern of its winners be it milers like Embroidery from last year or Chrono Genesis in 2019 who ran at 2200m+ races with one of the decisive factors coming down to the main frontrunner of the race. Those who are more attuned with shorter distances are likely going to set a faster pace as the pacemaker regardless of whether they’re capable of running for longer and thus will make the race more dynamic in the process (case in point, Beach Samba in 2019 whose later starts were around a miler’s range despite placing in the top 5, later 2-time G1 Victoria Mile champion Verxina in 2nd place in 2012, and Bright on Base in 2022 whose starts were mostly sprint-range). The filly and her jockey will likely need to abruptly adapt to the tempo in order to succeed and with the decently lengthy final straight, the pacesetter is unlikely to succeed if she does get tired out. There are only two who succeeded from the frontmost position with one being the double tiara and later Arima Kinen legend Daiwa Scarlet..

The last critical component of the Shuka Sho is that as it’s set later in the season, the established bond between the filly and her jockey is going to be crucial in ensuring that the run goes as smoothly as possible. This is especially applicable to those who took part in the previous two legs as the jockey should by then have a better understanding of their preferred running style and estimated distance aptitude. Therefore, they end up carrying extra responsibility in minimising their ride’s weaknesses and amplifying their strengths in light of the aforementioned dynamism from the more varied runners. For example, Sweep Tosho broke through as a G1 champion in the race back in 2004 thanks to her long-standing partnership with Kenichi Ikezoe even as she fell short of winning in the previous two tiara races.

Thus, the winner will likely excel in part thanks to the better understanding from her jockey and her ability to adapt to different tempos. Unless she either performs poorly to the point where change is needed or there’s a conflict of priority with other main rides in a future start, she will be able to keep her main jockey up until retirement from racing. Her distance aptitude otherwise matters more with where her future starts might come soon after barring a G1 Japan Cup contention should she happen to claim all three legs in the process. Some might opt for a slam-dunk win against the older mares in the QEII Cup to test the waters for medium distances while others would go for a miler’s route even if entering the G1 Mile Championship might be too soon compared to a good bit of rest.

Entrants

Favourites

Often well into the single-digits with their betting odds, the favourites possess the credentials, sky-high individual performances, and the pedigree which should allow them to deliver in the race.

Gate 8 – Monroe Walk, Nobody’s Perfect (Except One) (Filly 3, 1 graded win)

A naturally talented daughter of Kizuna based on her dominant debut victory last year, Monroe Walk’s absence from the previous two tiara races due to recovering from a fracture adds a level of anticipation on her then-upcoming return. She made her second start in June as though she never seemed to have rusted from her promising showing with two quick consecutive wins before taking on the G2 Rose Stakes as her first graded attempt with a hyped-up top favourite. She smashed her opposition with ease with the fastest last 3 furlong time there at 34.1 seconds while running in 2nd place up until the final corner with the other top 3 favourites in Enne and Exceed struggling to even match her potency.

Monroe Walk’s seemingly unstoppable streak despite being absent in the Oka Sho and the Japanese Oaks leads to endless comparisons with the race’s winner in 2002 – Fine Motion. Both saw difficulties in entering the Japanese Classics and had to sit on the sidelines until they’re in the middle of their 3YO seasons. Both had to grind throughout the summer to enter the final leg which included a dominant Rose Stakes victory as their first graded bid. And both stood out from others for the frequency of exerting dominant wins by several lengths ahead of the rest of their competition. Suffice to say, both could be argued as a cut above the rest even if it took them a while to enter their age-restricted G1 race.

Building on said hype is that Monroe Walk’s training videos are described as being the most unambiguously impressive out of the entrants. The Japan Racing Association’s shared clip shows her running on the slope with her strides looking ready to accelerate if needed while her 4F time of 53.3 suggests clear confidence in how she handles the undulation. A previous training video of her only adds even more to the overwhelming expectation that she’ll make an entire field look like perennial maiden runners with an 6F time of 80.9, a 3F time of 36.1, and a 1F time of 11.1. If not for her fracture, how well would she do in the other two legs if she’s able to enter in both?

Of course, it’s worth noting that horseracing is known for being no strangers to upsets and shock results. Just last year, the winner Embroidery was the second favourite then but she’s more distant in the difference over the betting odds compared to Kamunyak whose odds are well into the range of 2. However, Kamunyak placed poorly at 16th owing to her mood being unsettled prior to the race’s beginning along with being in a position that she doesn’t like, leading to her burning out prematurely and tiring out on the final corner. This doesn’t mean to say that the same event will happen to Monroe Walk. However, general consensus agreed that she’s never been pushed to her full limit as her jockey (which is Keita Tosaki as of now) never used his whip on her. If the competition happens to be much closer than anticipated, how well will she be able to handle the extra pressure?

Gate 13 – Dream Core, At the Crossroads (Filly 3, 1 graded win)

Since her 2nd place in the Japanese Oaks, expectations are set on Dream Core to further realise her potential as one of the most promising fillies of her generation. Following her lengthy spelling to bulk up, she entered the G2 Shion Stakes as the top favourite thanks to her proven talent. She unfortunately didn’t do as well as her small betting odds would have suggested as she placed a respectable 3rd place. With a L3F time of 36.7 on soft turf while being behind the better-prepared Master Soarer and Something Sweet as the respective winner and runner-up by more than a length. It’s good at least that her main jockey Christophe Lemaire had gone for an on-pace position behind the frontrunners to ensure that she placed as well as she did.

This in turn leaves many concerns around Dream Core as a contender even as the second favourite in the race. Right-turn races for one might stick out as a quirk that adversely affects her performance given that she placed a dismal 9th place in the Oka Sho as the second favourite. Lemaire himself describes her as being more likely suited as a miler which is going to leave a major question mark both on how he’ll ride her in the Shuka Sho and what her upcoming starts might look like depending on her placement. Her training video for the race leaves room for concern on whether she’ll be able to give Monroe Walk a run for her money given her relatively slow 6F time of 84.8 and a more relaxed 38.6 for her 3F time. Her newfound trainer Hiroyasu Tanaka tries to be upbeat about her however with a handful of comments on how she’s getting better at conserving her stamina and how she shows a more natural readiness in accelerating against a training partner.

It seems that between her and Monroe Walk, the latter is much more poised to be Kizuna’s potential superstar progeny in the future. Dream Core however does have an upper hand on her which rests more in experience. She placed a solid 2nd place in the Oaks and had run in three other graded races as a clear sign to show that she has proven credentials in facing tough competition on-paper more frequently. It’s unlikely therefore that she’ll get spooked out by any unexpected development during the run. She might have her clear weaknesses be it right turns or doubts over her true distance specialty. However, she will not back out of giving her all in the final leg of the Triple Tiara and if there’s anyone whose experience would make them deserving of it, it might well be Dream Core.

Dark Horses

With odds between 10 and 30-40 depending on the favourites, they look unremarkable compared to the top favourites. They do however have a notable history of placing well in graded titles and should the entries be stacked enough, even win at least 1 themselves. They simply appear to lack the “X-factor” needed to win the biggest championships in the country.

Gate 1 – Garavogue (Filly 3)

What would’ve been Star Anise’s potential archnemesis with two runner-up placings in the G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies last year and this year’s Oka Sho had just returned from a long bit of spelling. Reports of health issues pushed Garavogue towards a brief hiatus with an immediate entry into the final leg without any attempts in entering the trial races. Thus, the main challenges she’ll be facing will be on whether she does have the stamina to run up to 2000m at least with a notable bit of undulations as well as whether she’s mentally ready enough to run against stacked competition once more. Her training video makes for a good bit of promise as she’s able to clock in 51.5 for her 4F, 36.7 for her 3F, and 11.2 for her 1F. She still shows some good bit of talent, but she’ll need to prove that she can go an extra distance should she want to finally break through to a G1 win.

Gate 3 – Master Soarer (Filly 3, 1 graded win)

The champion of one of the Shuka Sho’s designated trial races in the Shion Stakes ahead of Dream Core, Master Soarer has the makings of being one of Masayashi Ebina’s first blue hen horses as a trainer since his transition from a respected career as a jockey. Her win shows her proficiency in running across softer turfs with a promising turn of foot to boot. The expected turf condition for the G1 race will be good however so she’ll be needing to signal her acceleration as being a consistent x-factor for her contention. Her training video is a tad bit worrisome as her 3F time is clocked in as just below 40 seconds which feels sluggish although a heightened 4F time of 51.5 shows that she can go from zero to a hundred if given the nudge. Will this be her ultimate weapon in the actual run?

Gate 4 – Enne (Filly 3)

Being 2nd place in the Rose Stakes has certainly dampened down on expectations surrounding Enne now that spectators are aware of Monroe Walk’s prowess. She’s able to at least flex out her position from being a sharp end closer to running on-pace as is preferred from her main jockey Ryusei Sakai. This change does leave a bit to be desired as she could lose out on her usual spurt that could rival the likes of gen-mate Laughterlines and Juryoku Pierrot whose health issues have led them both to skip the Shuka Sho. The ballooning betting odds toward the higher end shouldn’t dissuade fans from backing her however as we know that she does show the sharpness needed whenever she’s pushed to give her all. The training video might as well be discounted in evaluating her because it’s almost all entirely a maintenance run to emphasise whether her strides are at least optimised even if it’s not quickened. The good news for it is that the smoothness in her running still remains.

Gate 6 – La Belle Scene (Filly 3)

The unexpected third favourite based on the betting odds which is still a tad bit distant to Dream Core’s, La Belle Scene is building up interest on the account of her sharp last start. While it’s a modest allowance race with a relatively slow pace, it’s one that highlights her strengths well as she’s able to exert a whopping L3F time of 32.5 on the long final straight in Niigata. Her training video basically consists of her being restrained as to not run all out to her full potential as she clocks a largely slow time for each furlong… Except in one of the leaked past videos that showed her 1F time as a well-oiled 11.5 as she bypassed her training partner with ease even with her main jockey Kiwamu Ogino keeping her on leash. Should she be able to temper her mood, she can pull off what Sixpence had done in the G1 Yasuda Kinen and be an unexpected Kizunaling star who won the coveted title ahead of the others.

Gate 11 – Garnet Flare (Filly 3)

What seems to be a dirt runner at first has sharpened up into a hard-working turf runner who’s hoping for a big break. Garnet Flare is undergoing a similar career as Juryoku Pierrot as someone who seems to be more in tune with running on a different surface. And they happen to be really good at it with two wins off the back of the transition. She’ll be partnered up with Yuichi Kitamura as her seeming main jockey following the latter’s many road bumps in securing a go-to filly throughout this year’s Triple Tiara run. Her training video shows her being able to handle the undulation with a respectable 1F time of 12.3 and with a preferred position towards the front, she’s set on making the run unpredictable beyond relief. Could she be the first frontrunner to win the race since Aventura in 2011? A win would supply fans of Chrono Genesis’s Umamusume counterpart with cute fan arts for a bit on top of lucky betting profit.

Gate 12 – Canal Saint Martin (Filly 3)

The winner of the listed Sweetpea Stakes is vying for a comeback from a solid open-level performer to a sharp top runner. She initially had Lemaire as her main jockey but a lengthy break caused her to pair up with the reliable Mirai Iwata. She might not enjoy the chemistry perk of working with him for a long time, but he’s shown skills in being able to win a G1 race on the back of riding an entrant a handful of times with Puro Magic in the Sprinters’ Stakes being one example. Her training video where she runs on the slope shows a solid 1F time of 12 which could make for a small x-factor in running up the undulation ahead of the rest in the lead-up to the final straight.

Gate 14 – Something Sweet (Filly 3)

Cute name aside, Something Sweet has shown signs of sharpness in placing 2nd in the Shion Stakes on softer turf with the fastest L3F time as she came just behind Master Soarer by half a length. Her only wins being from her fifth maiden race and her 1-win allowance might make her come off as a major underdog compared to others, but her training video is a massive signal towards her hitting her peak. Her 6F time is at a relaxed 83.9, but her 4F time of 51.4, 3F time of 36.8, and 1F time of 11.3 makes for a dark horse contender who’s only flexing out her adaptability to the range of tempos that could be available. And with the combo of having Kohei Matsuyama as her jockey who’s having the season of his life like his Derby win on Triple Crown hopeful Lovcen, she has every possibility under her hooves to pull off an upset win without needing a past graded title.

Gate 16 – Hayabusa Sakichan (Filly 3)

An initial maiden grinder who never fell out of the top 3, Hayabusa Sakichan jumped between jockeys throughout her career until May of this year when she finally got Hayato Yoshida to ride her on a regular basis. The duo are out on a clear grind with the Shuka Sho being the filly’s first ever graded attempt and Yoshida’s recent records only starting to look better over the second half of the season with his most commendable effort being a 3rd place on Sound Moryana in the Sprinters’ Stakes. There are challenges that lie ahead with Hayabusa Sakichan only hitting the 33 range for her L3F time and the majority of her starts showing her L3F time to oscillate between the 34-35 range. Her training video which shows her 1F time of 11.4 shows that she can put out a decent time if needed. The real question is on whether she’s able to run even quicker and hold it for the last 600m of the race.

Handicapping

Essentially my predictions of who will go into the top 3 with 1 extra mention going to a contender outside the single-digit favourites who has a high chance at an upset, I feel that they are in the best possible form to win the race.

1 – Monroe Walk

This feels like the safest possible pick in all cases. Monroe Walk shows off the acceleration from a front-facing position, has dominated a graded race with ease, and is clearly shown to be well-prepared for her G1 run. She does have some issues like being more inexperienced in running against more stacked opposition, her response to signals to exert herself more, or how her seeming main jockey Tosaki didn’t ride her all that often compared to the other entrant-jockey combos. Nonetheless, her abilities have been remarkably impressive and she seems to be a class above the rest.

2 – La Belle Scene

La Belle Scene has shown the natural affinity with sharp spurts and has proven bond with Ogino to make her case for the runner-up position. It’s worth noting that this race will be her first ever attempt at a graded race entirely and it’s hard to say whether she has the mentality to be able to handle the added pressure from her jockey. All that said, her training footage shows off her energetic temperament well and if that’s utilised well enough, she could give Monroe Walk an unexpected run of her money.

3 – Enne

Enne’s biggest strengths in the G1 lies in her credentials as a sharp end-closing runner whose chill training sessions happen to be a major boon towards her development. Her biggest con lies not with her specifically but rather her synergy with Sakai given the incompatibility in their preferred positions throughout the race. That she placed 2nd in the Rose Stakes suggests that she could prove herself flexible in where she can run however even if she might not be as mentally ready in using her signature turn of foot in a different position. If she’s able to mentally mature between her last start and now to the point of being more responsive to Sakai’s commands, she could be an unexpected major challenger to put a dent on Monroe Walk’s perfect race records.

Upset – Something Sweet

Something Sweet’s notable turn of foot, promising training time, and notable pairing with a solid jockey makes her a legitimate contender for a major upset. She’s only raced in a graded lineup once which was the Shion Stakes, but it’s the one run where she’s able to show off her strengths in full. She’s shown herself to be a major competitor and should she be in peak form, I can see her go down in history as a giant-slayer to Monroe Walk and given this weekend’s worth of underdogs winning over the overwhelming favourite like Tempted against Ka Ying Rising in the G1 Everest, it will be worth all the hype in the world.