“Unsatisfied with the titles acquired when he was young,

His challenges continue forever.

To the next dream. To the summit named glory.”

(Translation by the Umamusume wiki)

The monarch of the milers etch their names through this race. In its lifespan, many of the greatest short-distance specialists prevail over others in a span of 1 and a half minutes. History tends to forget its titans and it proves unforgiving to its failures. Here is where redemptions are made and dreams are met, when potential soars once again as does the glory that chants the name.

Introduction & Context

The Yasuda Kinen sticks out as one of the oldest major races in Japan outside of the Classics with its inauguration in 1951, predating the iconic Arima Kinen by 5 years. It’s named after the founding chairman of the Japan Racing Association Izaemon Yasuda as the Yasuda Sho before changing its name following his passing in 1958. Since then and especially in light of the formal introduction of the grading system in 1984, the race sits as the penultimate Group 1 race of the first half of the horseracing season before the Takarazuka Kinen.

Among the more unique aspects of the Yasuda Kinen is that it’s among the more popular destinations for foreign-born entrants to compete in outside the G1 Japan Cup with winners like the Godolphin-owned Heart Lake in 1995, Fairy King Prawn in 2000 as the first Hong Kong-trained racehorse to win an overseas G1, and another Hong Kong-based Bullish Luck who’s able to achieve the Asian Mile Challenge bonus from winning the Champion Mile in 2006. Most recently, the acclaimed world-trotting gelding Romantic Warrior was able to leave his mark as the latest outsider to add the race to his belt in 2024 as the third Hong Kong-based racehorse to win on top of his legacy as one of this century’s very best.

Otherwise, Japan still exhibits the vast majority of the winners in the race and when they do, they’re often seen as the best milers of their time. Champions like Taiki Shuttle in 1998 and Vodka in both 2008 and 2009 respectively are added into the JRA’s Hall of Fame while other names like Just A Way in 2014, Maurice in 2015,  North Flight in 1994, and Gran Alegria in 2020 are otherwise seen as being on the pantheons of top short-distance runners. Even ignoring the historical prestige, runners like Admire Cozzene back in 2002 and Logotype in 2016 are able to leave a stunning career comeback from winning the race which turned them into targets of public fawning.

The last champion was Jantar Mantar, regarded by fans as someone who could be remembered in the same way as Taiki Shuttle and Maurice as an all-time great. He’s the first racehorse in the country to win all the G1 mile races he’s able to take part in which include the NHK Mile Cup back in 2024 along with the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes a year before. Last year, on top of his Yasuda Kinen win, he also conquered the Mile Championship with ease with his only major domestic rival being the older Gaia Force. He does appear to struggle in overseas expeditions however and in both the end of his 3 year-old campaign and his last start, he placed in the double digits whenever he entered Hong Kong. As of now, he’s resting with his upcoming goals being unclear.

Race Layout and General Assumption

Much like the Victoria Mile and the NHK Mile Cup, the Yasuda Kinen puts major emphasis on consistent speed with the deceptive interest in stamina based on how well the entrant can handle undulations. Unlike the 2 mile G1s set in Tokyo Racecourse however, this one has the added unpredictability of it being a mixed-sex race. This means that even with the assumption that male racehorses would trump out female ones with ease, a talented filly/mare with past experience in performing well in the Oka Sho could get an upper hand as shown by Gran Alegria in 2020. 

Additionally, because the race is open to 3YOs and up, the Yasuda Kinen could hypothetically make for a destination among ambitious trainers or owners who see their entrant as the East’s answer to European legend Sea the Stars. In practice however, it’s rare for a 3YO to enter the race even if they are able to win the Oka Sho and/or the NHK Mile Cup with ease. The last winner of the race at the age of 3 was Real Impact back in 2011. The majority consists of 4YOs and over due to the advantage OF having a more developed body from physically maturing which in turn makes running at top speed both easier and safer.

Thus, with the long final straight that’s typical of Tokyo, the Yasuda Kinen serves as a true test for milers in Japan and is often regarded as the de-facto crowning jewel for short-distance specialists. Even Lord Kanaloa, whose experience was spent running as a world-class sprinter with no international rivals, had dominated the race back in 2013. Whoever wins the race has shown the inferred ability to both be able to run at top speed for a long period of time all the while having the immediate acceleration kick to push through on the final straight.

Entrants

Favourites

Often well into the single-digits with their betting odds, the favourites possess the credentials, sky-high individual performances, and the pedigree which should allow them to deliver in the race.

Gate 1 – Lebensstil, the Enigma (Horse 6, 5 graded wins)

Lebensstil is a strange racehorse to keep tabs on. His impressive record of 5 graded wins are not only lacking of any G1s, but are all on non-multiple distances of 400 metres. Whenever he tries to take part in a G1 race, disappointment soon follows with his placements there often falling short of being in the top 5. It’s notable that his arguably best performance in that level was from his last start in the Osaka Hai where he placed 7th. You could at least blame it on winner Croix du Nord for his constant sideway turns from the whip use and his jockey Christophe Lemaire for putting him in the midfield position rather than having him be the pace chaser.

For those who got into Japan’s horseracing scene via Umamusume, there is a good bit of charm surrounding Lebensstil. Fans love him for his funny race records with his most devout supporters often being those who know of the miracle horse Tokai Teio who’s his matrilineal grandfather. His wins are all either 1800 or 2200m which makes for a notable quirk should he be adapted into the franchise on why he always tend to deliver in those very distances. Will he (or rather she in-universe) be a part of the ragtag Team Canopus? It’s fun for sure how he’ll be represented in the future should he be added in.

Lebensstil’s contention even in light of his “choking” tendencies are not out of the question with the Yasuda Kinen. When he claims his graded wins, they are always clean irrespective of the odds surrounding him prior to the race and he’s able to claim at least 1 a year at least which speaks to his ability to compete at a high level for a good while. He’s flexible when it comes to jockey partnerships with his designated one being Keita Tosaki for this race. And his training video shows his remarkably sharp 6 furlong time of 80.3 seconds. If there’s a title that redeems a lifetime’s worth of shortcomings, may this be the one.

Gate 3 – Stellenbosch, Don’t Call It a Comeback (Mare 5, 1 graded win including 1 G1)

Stellenbosch was once looking to be on the precipice of being the next big name in terms of being the top female racehorse. She won the 2024 Oka Sho and then followed it up with constant top 3 placements in the highest level of competition throughout her Classics season. Whatever lack of damning flaws she appeared to exhibit then were thrown out of the window the following year. 2025 was a nightmare for her as the golden child of what some termed the “Epitimer”. As the daughter of Epiphaeneia, she suffered a similar (albeit much worse) problem that Daring Tact had in that she not only failed to win another graded title, but she bottomed out of many races which culminated in a painful 10th place in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup.

This year with a transfer to a new stable, Stellenbosch suddenly appeared to have a second spark even as the distance got shuffled to a lower end. On her first start of the year that was the G3 Nakayama Himba Stakes, she clocked in a tied 3rd fastest L3F time of 35.3 seconds despite getting the heaviest handicap weight of 57.5 kilograms into 7th place. On her next start in the G3 Epsom Cup, she nearly dead-heated winner Trovatore even with a dramatic slowing down between the top corners prior to running up the undulation. For all the heartbreaks surrounding her fall from grace, she’s slowly yet gradually reaching up to the peaks that once saw many hail her as one of the top fillies of 2024.

Pushing back against her presumed failing strengths, Stellenbosch will be hoping to make the Yasuda Kinen the prime target of her redemption. Her training video shows her trying her hardest to run up the slope in spite of the rain with a 4F time of 54.5 and a 1F time of 12.5 seconds. Pretty impressive given that the rain would’ve made running much harder and in turn would incentivise a slower time. Her jockey will be Damien Lane as Lemaire had opted to ride Trovatore (traitor) while her Epsom Cup substitute Tosaki will go for Lebensstil. Lane himself has shown clear talent in handling mile races with a win in last month’s NHK Mile Cup on Rodeo Drive. Hopefully this small bit of momentum will push her to the win and break the stereotype of being Epiphaeneia’s early bloomer who’s hitting the burnt-out gifted kid phase as soon as she’s at the age of 4 and over.

Gate 14 – Gaia Force, the Expressive Dreamer (Horse 7, 2 graded wins)

Born to be a Kitaling, forced to act as a Goldling. Gaia Force enjoys a reputation of being an out-and-about idol horse. He’s a “black sheep” of Kitasan Black’s top children as he struggled to match the highs of Equinox and Croix du Nord as well as not enjoy the consistency shown by Wilson Tesoro. In fact, his career is a complete rollercoaster. He tried being a stayer as a 3YO back in 2022 which saw him flounder in the Kikuka Sho as the top favourite and he ran on dirt in the 2024 February Stakes which he’s able to claim 2nd place before flopping a year after. His legions of fans are most likely going to remember him for his strings of funny expressions whenever he’s on camera than his race records. Jokes were even made about how he’s spiritually a son of Gold Ship.

It’s incidentally in the Yasuda Kinen last year when he appeared to finally start hitting his peak. He got second against Jantar Mantar despite being a long shot contender before winning the G2 Fuji Stakes to again place 2nd in the Mile Championship. Barring his failure on his first start of this year in the G1 Dubai Turf which can be chalked up to running an overseas campaign alongside getting an outermost gate opening and a de-facto frontrunning position, Gaia Force is primed for his swan song should this year be his last as a racer.

Gaia Force’s long list of experiences point towards him being ready for a cherished G1 victory. He ran in races that are at 2000m or over which points toward at least some bit of stamina to push though an outside position even if his miler specialisation would leave him more prone to tire out. He’s versatile in positioning as he can run in the midfield, run on-pace with the frontrunner, or even aim to set the tempo himself as the pacesetter. And his training video puts him squarely in contention to make the dream come true with a blitzing 4F time of 52.6 and a 1F time of 12.1 on the slope. With Takeshi Yokoyama as his jockey who has yet to win an international short-distance G1 in his home country, Gaia Force is hoping to leave an iconic mark that will fuel comparisons between him and Stay Gold for years to come.

Gate 16 – Panja Tower, Simply Dependable (Colt 4, 3 graded wins including 1 G1)

Best known for winning the NHK Mile Cup last year as a dark horse, Panja Tower had since then proved himself to be reliable enough to enter the top 5 in most of his starts. His pedigree which includes his father who is the 2019 Sprinters’ Stakes winner Tower of London sets him up as one of the prospective names to keep in mind for short-distance runners last year. His career at first looks to be ones of ups and downs with a G2 Keio Hai Nisai Stakes in 2024 as an underdog, then a flop in the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes and the 2025 Falcon Stakes afterwards before an unexpected win of the top 3YO-only G1 for milers. 

His career had since then plateaued to a decent streak of honourable mentions. He’s able to place in the top 5 of Australia’s G1 Golden Eagle at the end of his Classics season and the rapidly-promoting G2 1351 Turf Sprint for this year. A small stinger among his fans came when, as one of the top 3 favourites for the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen for sprinting, he came 4th behind the uncs like the 9YO Win Carnelian whom he lost 3rd place to by a head. This might not have dampened down expectations around him too much, but it does leave some a bit worried on whether his ceiling as a G1 winner proves shorter than even those who won their first one at the age of 8.

Typically sitting around the midfield with the preference for a good surge, Panja Tower’s main jockey is Kohei Matsuyama whose Tokyo experience was warmed up with a G1 win in last week’s Japanese Derby on Lovcen. His training video shows a slower time than Regaleira’s with a 1F time of 13.3 although he does at least enjoy a bit of prep work in eventually facing Tokyo’s uphill segment. His race records at least point towards a stability that would ideally see him finish no worse than the top 5 unless he gets horribly blocked on the final straight due to either a late start or being surrounded by tired runners in front of him. His connections ideally want him to go further than that however. He should win the Yasuda Kinen to at least break the spell of him being a seeming side character in a line of recent G1 champions with his NHK Mile Cup win being his brief moment in the spotlight.

Gate 17 – Trovatore, Late-Blooming Wonder (Horse 5, 3 graded wins)

Trovatore’s first taste of his G1 attempt was the same Yasuda Kinen from last year following his G3 Lord Derby Challenge Trophy victory. It’s a frankly humbling experience which saw him place second to last to say the least as Jantar Mantar puts himself one step closer to being the country’s unanimous best miler and Gaia Force starts vying for being the second best miler. Following a bit of flirtation with dirt racing alongside a 4th place in his first start of this year in the G3 Kyoto Kimpai, Trovatore started his rapid ascension to top contention. With Lemaire as his main jockey, he managed to claim 2 consecutive graded titles soon after with the G3 Tokyo Shimbun Hai and the Epsom Cup with immensely sharp L3F times of 33 on average.

Trovatore has almost everything ready to redeem himself for this race. He has Lemaire as his main jockey with a recent G1 mile race with Embroidery in the Victoria Mile, a history of strong spurts especially for this year, and a bit of experience in running on longer distances which could ameliorate the stamina issues of running from the outermost gate opening. His training video also shows him perfecting his ability to sustain his spurt further on with a 3F time of 36.3 and a 1F of 11.2. If there’s one major problem he must address, he’ll likely be assigned the heaviest weight in part due to Lemaire’s dominance and with his heavier weight, how he’ll actually perform can get messy. Should the structure of the race not go the way he would have wanted, his spurt wouldn’t matter if others are more ready to adapt to the differences than he’s able to…

Dark Horses

With odds between 10 and 30-40 depending on the favourites, they look unremarkable compared to the top favourites. They do however have a notable history of placing well in graded titles and should the entries be stacked enough, even win at least 1 themselves. They simply appear to lack the “X-factor” needed to win the biggest championships in the country.

Gate 4 – Sixpence (Horse 5, 3 graded wins)

At least enjoying 3 graded titles to his belt, Sixpence’s race records so far points toward one of underperformance despite high expectations. His graded wins so far are all at 1800m with the hopeful sign that 1 less furlong wouldn’t be too much of a problem. That being said, his adaptation to being a pure miler could be best described as a shitshow with several poor placements in 3 G1 races that’s based around that including 2 on dirt and his last start in the G2 Milers’ Cup saw him finish a good bit behind the well-jockeyed Admire Zoom who had to be pulled out of the Yasuda Kinen due to an injury. He’ll be partnered with the winner’s jockey Yutaka Take funnily enough. Knowing Take himself, there’s always the possibility of the bullshit magic that could see him win the most important mile race in the country from that factor…

Gate 7 – Suzu Khalom (Horse 6, 1 graded win)

The shock winner of this year’s Lord Derby Challenge Cup as an end closer, the son of 3 G1-winning Satono Diamond is vying to hit his peak at a relatively older age. There’s a precedent for him to wih the race with a sharp spurt given how in 2 of his starts, his L3F times are able to reach around the 32-second mark. It’s worth noting however that the times of these races are from the slower end in terms of finishing time and there’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to pull them off should the tempo be faster as expected in Japan. His jockey Takashi Fujikake also didn’t have the most impressive record with his only other graded win being the 2021 G3 Mermaid Stakes. Will Suzu Khalom enjoy the glory of being the first G1-winning progeny of Satono Diamond?

Gate 8 – Champagne Color (Horse 6, 1 graded win including 1 G1)

It’s not everyday that a G1 champion had so struggled to add another graded title to their belt that public perception around them had faded to an uncomfortable whimper when betting opened up. The upset champion of the 2023 NHK Mile Cup had only placed in the top 5 twice with a 4th place in the Tokyo Shimbun Hai this year. He’s struggling to get his foot well on the door even as the son of Duramente and whatever glimmers of hope he showed only gets extinguished with yet another bottoming out. If there’s a bit of optimism to throw in, Logotype did win the same race in 2016 against top miler Maurice at an older age of 6. It might not be a 1:1 comparison, but an upset is possible if everything lines up perfectly for him…

Gate 9 – Water Licht (Horse 5, 1 graded win)

The champion of last year’s Tokyo Shimbun Hai was likely better known for sliding into the top 3 of the Mile Championship later on despite being a dramatic long shot. What appears to be a stabilisation towards consistency gets thrown out the window in the Milers’ Cup when he placed in the double digits. And the salt on the wound is that it’s a part of the pattern which shows him seemingly doing well in a few starts before placing poorly in the next few before flipping again. A good bit of fans will hope that his Milers’ Cup showing is just an off-game and that it’s just a poor start off the gate for him. His training video did show him running well on the slope with a 1F time of 12.3 at the very least.

Gate 11 – World’s End (Horse 5, 1 graded win)

A Lord Kanaloa progeny with a great recent warm-up in a G2 Keio Hai Spring Cup win, World’s End is the likeliest to contend as the pacesetter of the race. He’ll be partnered with Akihide Tsumura whose jockeying included a smart bit of fending against the surgers and optimised pathing towards the inside to the point that many thought that it’s his main strategy with Realize Sirius in the Derby. Too bad that didn’t work out as many would have hoped. Yet, maybe that’s the plan that might work much better with World’s End here. His training video did point towards that as a possibility with a 3F time of 37.2 followed by a well-accelerated 1F time of 11.8.

Gate 13 – Seiun Hades (Horse 7, 2 graded wins)

Another pacesetting contender whose virtual runaway bid in last year’s Japan Cup allowed a new world record to be set, Seiun Hades stands out as the main breadwinner of Silver State’s surprisingly strong progenies despite his race records being made up almost entirely of allowances win. Between his solid training video which emphasises his acceleration (3F time of 37.4 to a 1F time of 11.2) and his 2 graded wins, Seiun Hades is hoping to finally break through to a G1 title. His past history of running his own race against his jockey’s best judgements do get the best of him however and it’s until the G1 Osaka Hai when he’s able to be disciplined by being a pace chaser instead – one that pays off by him placing 5th. There might be no guarantee on whether he’ll obey his jockey’s command like last time, but he does show the highs of going blow-to-blow with the best. 

Gate 15 – Dragon Boost (Colt 4)

Without a graded title to his name, Dragon Boost’s race records got a few pundits thinking. His last start shows him surge towards a 2nd place in the Milers’ Cup despite being a 9th favourite with odds around a 20. What’s interesting about him is that this isn’t the first time he’s able to overperform and Netkeiba even had an article to highlight his potential for a dramatic upset. He placed 2nd in last year’s G3 Keisei Hai as the 7th favourite as well and in the listed Osakajo Stakes, he managed to win in a very open field even though he’s again the 7th favourite with a more favourable betting odds of just under 9. His jockey Yuji Tanmai won graded titles on seeming underdogs more often than not which speaks to his seemingly underrated reputation in the country. It’s not far out the realm of possibility for Dragon Boost to once again pop off despite yet another underestimation.

Handicapping

Essentially my predictions of who will go into the top 3 with 1 extra mention going to a contender outside the single-digit favourites who has a high chance at an upset, I feel that they are in the best possible form to win the race.

1 – Gaia Force

With Jantar Mantar on spelling at the moment and his training video looking really good, Gaia Force is hoping for this race to mark his first G1 victory after running for so long. With all the hype surrounding him that’s backed by a stabilising race record since the second half of last year, his added versatility only hammers home the possibility that things wouldn’t go worse for him. Could this truly be his time to shine?

2 – Panja Tower

Panja Tower’s seeming consistency even if it’s not as precise as Danon Decile’s suggests a lack of bottom floor that would leave fans worried. His jockey Matsuyama is surely warmed up from his Derby win and a good bit of prep work shows his readiness of surviving the undulations for the first half of the race. Panja Tower will be hoping to improve from a top 5 to the top 3 at the very least and chances are there that he might be able to settle into it.

3 – Stellenbosch

I frankly doubt that Stellenbosch would be able to win the Yasuda Kinen as dope as the narrative around her career would have looked. It would be exhilarating however if she’s able to surge towards a photo finish. Her last few starts show her improving her L3F times in a sign that her spurt’s getting into form and her jockey Lane already did win this year’s NHK Mile Cup on Rodeo Drive from the midfield on the final straight. I’m hoping that she’ll finally be able to put on an earnest fight in the highest competition.

Upset – World’s End

The Keio Hai Spring Cup’s implications might have been greater in shaping how this race will go. Should World’s End be able to get his most optimal position towards the front without Seiun Hades to threaten it, he can pull off his tricks like last time. With a pretty respectable training time and Tsumura’s clear experience in setting the pace, World’s End can definitely put up a stronger showing than many would have expected.