“The horse ran a good race to claim the victory,

He didn’t break well as expected, but I was able to guide him to a good position thanks to the wide draw.

He’s a clever horse and whether he performs well or not depends on his mood. So I’m relieved that he lived up to the expectations of many fans.”

– Norihiro Yokoyama, on Gold Ship’s second consecutive Takarazuka Kinen victory in 2014, translated by the Umamusume wiki.

Fortune goes to the famed, the best bellies the brave, and glory comes for the greatest. The first national grand prix race of Japan’s horseracing season awaits those who blend both star power and celebritydom to make for the ultimate spectacle. Upsets make tradition, miracles become commonplace, and romance writes history in the Takarazuka Kinen.

Introduction & Context

The Takarazuka Kinen, made for 3-years old and up, was inaugurated in 1960 in response to the ballooning popularity of the Arima Kinen as a key fixture in the country’s horseracing season. The key part about this which makes it stand out from the other Group 1 races is that rather than eyeing up a priority berth for guaranteed qualification, entrants are instead added in by registered voters in the Japan Racing Association. This aspect is shared with the Arima Kinen and it’s through this focus on public popularity which makes it described by fans as a grand prix race. The entrants aren’t just seen as exceptional enough in their success, but are genuinely beloved among their fandom to the point of at least being able to reach in the top 10 on the final poll.

Usually, up to the maximum of 10 runners are able to enter through this system with the other 8 being able to qualify usually through the earnings. Of course, owners or trainers who are prioritising different races or whose voted favourite specialises in a specific type like sprinting aren’t obliged to enter the Takarazuka Kinen in which case the priority simply shifts to another entrant whose connections might prove more willing. There are controversies surrounding loopholes being exploited to enter a more unknown but otherwise more proven racehorse by forwarding in an inverted entrant like last year’s Arima Kinen. However, such a problem should be fixed and the entry priority will most likely be granted towards another voted-in name rather than be left to the trainer’s discretion.

Since 2017, the Takarazuka Kinen makes up the final leg of what fans have dubbed the “Spring Triple Crown” with the other legs in order being the Osaka Hai and the Spring Tenno Sho. As of now, none have yet to claim the honours of winning all 3 races in the same year to earn the accolade although there are a few contenders, either speculated or have made an attempt to do so, who have thought of as being considered for such. The lack of age-restriction in entering the races means that the milestone isn’t quite as impressive as the Classics equivalent or even the Autumn version and with the abrupt spike in distance between the Spring Tenno Sho and the others, trainers/owners are more likely to go for the Osaka Hai-Takarazuka Kinen rotation instead.

With the first winner in Homare Hiro, the race has quickly settled itself as an ironic part of the scene with other champions. Some of the names include: Shinzan in 1965, the second Triple Crown champion who’s the national equivalent to Italy’s Ribot who won all of the major races in his career along with different distances aptitude proven from 1200 metres up to 3200; Haiseiko in 1974, regarded as the definite idol horse for popularising the equestrian sport as a national staple with alleged links to crime syndicates being weaned out; and Grass Wonder in 1999; a key part of the 1998 “Golden Generation” who stood out as the first racehorse in the country to have won 3 consecutive grand prix races with his second Arima Kinen win at the end of the year. 

The last winner was Meisho Tabaru who’s also running this year to eye up a second consecutive win. The son of 6 G1-winning icon Gold Ship whose 2 Takarazuka Kinen wins stand out as his most iconic achievement, Tabaru sticks out from the other progenies in that he doesn’t exhibit a lot of stamina but makes up for it by a notably ruthless approach to frontrunning. He won his first graded title in the 2024 G3 Mainichi Hai on softer turf even though he bombed out of the Satsuki Sho and soon didn’t race in the Japanese Derby and he soon won the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai before flopping out of the Kikuka Sho. Last year and with a new main jockey in Yutaka Take, he took his time to shape up on his first few starts before pulling out his first G1 victory in this race against the fast-pursuing Bellagio Opera. His last start in the G1 Osaka Hai saw him pull a near-flawless runaway bid that led him placing 2nd only due to Croix du Nord being in top form. 

Race Layout and General Assumption

As a nice break from the last few G1s that took place in Tokyo, the Takarazuka Kinen is set in Hanshin Racecourse. The race consists of over 1 lap being run around the racetrack from the inner ring with an elongated straight for a start. There are a few bits of undulation throughout the race starting with the slight downhill slope before the steep upward hill which puts to the test the strong initial acceleration. The second and most consequential undulation rests in the top middle corner which makes the third corner of the race where there’s a gradual downhill which runs until the same upward hill for the final straight.

That slope dramatically shapes up the tactics on how to best run the race. Whoever is running at the front will find their spurt be preemptively charged up which, combined with the relatively shorter final straight, makes them more likely to stick out on top. Winners like Silence Suzuka in 1998, Mejiro Palmer in 1992, and Eishin Deputy in 2008 won the race through frontrunning with the former having won through a ballsy runaway attempt. This isn’t just a quirk that’s unique to the Takarazuka Kinen, but is also a key bias in running in Hanshin. Racehorses with a clear history of being successful in the track are also capable of winning especially if their jockey makes good use of penultimate slope to preempt their spurt.

Outside of the frontrunning favouritism, jockeys are very likely going to go with their main rides with substitutes only being given if there’s a conflict of priority between two entrants sharing the same main jockey. The key emphasis is to ensure that whatever comfort zone the entrant enjoys will be fully enabled and if they prefer to close in from the back on the final straight, expect a lot of premature moves to be made between the third and the last corner with the downward slope. If they aren’t tired out from the forward run, then this will mark the point when the race is at its most unpredictable…

Entrants

Favourites

Often well into the single-digits with their betting odds, the favourites possess the credentials, sky-high individual performances, and the pedigree which should allow them to deliver in the race.

Gate 1 – Danon Decile, Bronze Businesshorse (Horse 5, 4 graded wins including 2 G1s)

The dark horse champion of the 2024 Japanese Derby, Danon Decile proves himself to be among the best of Epiphaeneia’s foals not necessarily through iconic milestones. Rather, he stands out by sheer virtue of dependability. He won another G1 in last year’s Dubai Sheema Classics when he’s able to give the peak-hitting Calandagan a bloody nose (metaphorically). What he’s best known for however is his consistency in reaching podium finishes with 4 3rd places in 4 other G1s with his last one being in the Osaka Hai – where his jockey was the substitute Ryusei Sakai and where he found himself being blocked up until the very last furlong.

Here, he’ll reunite with his main jockey Keita Tosaki who has been riding him since the very beginning of last year as a replacement of Norihiro Yokoyama. Tosaki’s high-risk tendency to go for small gaps and perfectly timed swerves make for a gambit that could have incurred a penalty. Yet with Danon Decile, the risk finds itself to be non-existent and is instead more of a major boon to add to his reliability. It’s not quite hard to see why Tosaki prefers Danon Decile over Regaleira as the latter might have shown the highest of all highs of her generation, but she clearly wants an ideal set-up (to which we’ll get to later on). Decile’s able to succeed even when he’s given a jockey who prefers to ride towards the front and whose biggest success tends to be on dirt.

Decile’s training video marks him being ready for the race with an emphasis on acceleration. His 3F time of 38.6 seconds down to a 1F time of 11.7 highlights his readying turn of foot with his strides looking comfy without any worrisome signs from a glance. His positioning proves flexible as he can sit from the midfield, be the frontrunner, run on-pace, and even be willing to close from the rear in 2 of his starts although he hasn’t won them. All that being said, his spurt mostly hovers around 34 as his L3F average roughly so should he not be in an ideal position and others get an ideal avenue for their spurts, he might find himself easily out-dueled on the final straight…

Gate 2 – Museum Mile, History Lover (Colt 4, 3 graded wins including 2 G1s)

Museum Mile sits among the top 3 colts of his generation with Croix du Nord and Masquerade Ball. While the former is the target of public adoration and the latter shows a near-unrivalled potency in spurting when it comes to running on the final straight, Museum Mile shows himself to be a master of two criterias – 2000m-long races and Nakayama. His graded wins are all claimed in the same racecourse including his longest-ever distance in the Arima Kinen last year where his powerful turn of foot allowed him to win the race thanks to some fine jockeying from Cristian Demuro.

Museum Mile’s 4YO season proves to be pretty quiet unfortunately so far. His connections have readied him for a big international expedition with the target G1s being the Dubai Turf and Hong Kong’s Queen Elizabeth II Cup. He didn’t enter the former race due to the conflict in the Middle East over Israel’s constant beefing with Iran which hits neighbouring states including the hosting United Arab Emirates. The latter race saw him be forced to pull out following a thorough health inspection check which saw him not being ready to race without incurring an injury. The Takarazuka Kinen thus marks his first start of the year with the main caveat being that he wouldn’t be in the best shape due to his unexpectedly long layoff.

Museum Mile’s greatest strength always tends to be that his spurt ranks as among the best of his generation with his biggest rival in the aspect being Masquerade Ball. He’s able to pull out a sharp L3F time of under 34 in a plurality of his races including a 32.3 in the Autumn Tenno Sho last year thanks to the slow pace. He’s capable of adapting to different tempos as he managed to win the Satsuki Sho in record time before it was shredded apart this year by Lovcen. His training video does signal some reservation however as his 4F time of 53.8 is solid, but isn’t quite as impressive as major underdog Tagano Dude. The biggest question mark however rests in his partnership with Damian Lane who’s in the final days of his short-term license to ride in the country. He rode him to his worst finish so far in 6th place in the Japanese Derby which caused his connections to be more cautious about his distance aptitude outside of Nakayama. Will their second time together be able to click?

Gate 5 – Croix du Nord, Springtime Conquest (Colt 4, 6 graded wins including 4 G1s)

Full steam ahead, history is waiting to emerge, and the first Spring Triple Crown champion could be declared in this race. Croix du Nord had won the Osaka Hai and the Spring Tenno Sho this year in what amounts to an extraordinary season so far. He’s proven his affinity in the 4 major racetracks in Japan, he enjoys the honour of winning 2 key races that are age-restricted, and now he will eye up an unprecedented glory of winning 3 consecutive headlining races of the first half of the season. His father Kitasan Black won the Osaka Hai and the Spring Tenno Sho in the inauguration of the Spring Triple Crown back in 2017 only to fall completely flat in the Takarazuka Kinen in his 5YO season. Croix du Nord stands in the same situation that eluded his father and chances might be real for him to tear down the walls.

There are many aspects that Croix du Nord should enjoy in his bid to become the first ever Spring Triple Crown champion. His main jockey Yuichi Kitamura enjoys some good bit of history in doing well in Hanshin with his previous G1 wins in the racetrack including the 2019 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies on Resistencia, a previous Osaka Hai win on Al Ain in 2019, and the Takarazuka Kinen on Chrono Genesis in 2020. Croix du Nord himself already won the Osaka Hai in the very same racetrack which leaves little room to assume that he would get confused by the layout barring the extra furlong. His preference towards running on-pace further makes him more geared up to be ready in winning the race and thereby making history in the process with the extra bit of flexibility of being positioned in the midfield.

His training video shows a clear level of readiness that could make his dream come true. Running at an average 6F time of 83.2, he shows his responsiveness and adaptability towards accelerating to a faster speed with a 3F time of 36.7 and a 1F time of 11.2. Should he be able to keep up with this form, he can definitely pull out a competitive performance. That doesn’t mean that the sheer level of hype around him is fully justified however. At the end of the day, this is horseracing we’re talking about and there’s always the possibility of a dramatic upset or a last-minute change in condition could throw all intent into the toilet. His seemingly solid gate start could turn into a nightmare should he get a late start as he’ll likely find himself blocked fully and if a clear frontrunner is in prime condition, whatever success he might have against Meisho Tabaru in the Osaka Hai might not be guaranteed to appear again…

Gate 16 – Meisho Tabaru, Generational Trotter (Horse 5, 3 graded wins including 1 G1)

As mentioned previously, Meisho Tabaru sticks out like an anti-Gold Ship child. He might not have the stamina like his father, but he regularly aims for a frontrunning position. And he will not let go of that once he gets his ideal run. 2 of his graded wins often contain him being pushed to pull a runaway attempt and his comfiest racetrack happens to be in Hanshin where the layout allows a frontrunner like him to thrive. Outside of a 2nd place in the Osaka Hai against Croix du Nord to which some of his fans even considered to be his best performance so far, Meisho Tabaru tends to win in the racetrack by a good margin ahead of others. 

Out of the favourites, Meisho Tabaru’s training video might stick out as being the scariest so far. His 6F time might stand at the pretty normal 83.3 seconds, but his 3F time of 36.8 and a 1F of 10.9 shows a polishing of another aggressive pacesetting endeavour. He might have an outer gate opening, but he did win a race from a similar situation before. What makes him scary however is that with Take in the helm who similarly rode Silence Suzuka to notable success, Tabaru will identify some of the most ideal timing on when to take a breather before going all in for a major hurrah win. He will need to contend with other frontrunning entrants like Mystery Way and Sugar Kun however.  Should they be able to get the ideal position they want, he’ll find himself in a lot of trouble given that he rarely runs on-pace…

Gate 17 – Regaleira, Hopeful Star (Mare 5, 4 graded wins including 3 G1s)

Regaleira stands out as a notable major fan favourite. Since her major breakthrough with the Hopeful Stakes win back in 2023, Regaleira gets a lot of praise as being arguably one of the very best female racehorses of her generation. She’s someone who has shown a clear talent in running against the best colts as she’s able to perform solidly in the Satsuki Sho and the Japanese Derby in 2024 even if the win proves elusive. When her expected wins in the G2 All Comers and the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup (Japan’s version mind you) didn’t come, a change in jockey from Christophe Lemaire to Tosaki paid off dividends. She won the Arima Kinen as her final start of her Classics season and despite her bottoming out of the Takarazuka Kinen last year, she’s able to rebound effortlessly with a vengeance in the All Comers and the QEII Cup victory.

Funnily enough, once Tosaki had decided to prioritise Danon Decile over her in her second Arima Kinen attempt which led to Lemaire being back as her jockey once again, she struggled to convert her hype into a cherished win once more. Fans have noticed that the way that Lemaire tends to ride her might be detrimental to where she best excels at. He tends to position her as a backliner with a massive gamble on her powerful spurt which leads to a lot of sub-optimal positions as she regularly finds herself blocked even on the final straight. She at least was able to land in 4th place that’s not too different from her past showings, but many of her fans are now just wishing for Tosaki or another jockey to ride her with better synergy to say the least…

There are a few silver linings that Regaleira is able to look forward to. Her training video shows her ability to work under pressure with how she’s able to slip between her training partners with her signature turn of foot on display; her 3F time of 38.1 gets knocked down with ease to 11.2 for 1F. She proves herself to be responsive if needed as she’s able to move forward to 3rd place by the final corner of the Takarazuka Kinen last year before gassing out. Aside from that, with another long layoff and another attempt on the race that she flopped in, a win alone might make the most commendable evidence of her talent as being one of the top mares of her decade.

Dark Horses

With odds between 10 and 30-40 depending on the favourites, they look unremarkable compared to the top favourites. They do however have a notable history of placing well in graded titles and should the entries be stacked enough, even win at least 1 themselves. They simply appear to lack the “X-factor” needed to win the biggest championships in the country.

Gate 6 – Byzantine Dream (Horse 5, 3 graded wins)

A designated end closer, Byzantine Dream is able to at least enjoy 1 graded win despite doing poorly in the first 2 legs of the Classics. It’s until the Kikuka Sho when he starts to show a glimpse of his potential with a sharp L3F time of 35.4 in his first attempt as a stayer before skyrocketing in his 4YO season to look like he’s already won a G1 title himself. He won the G2 Red Sea Turf Handicap, came 2nd in the Spring Tenno Sho by only a head against Redentor while closing in from the back, and clinches out a win in the G2 Prix Foy to run in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe where he’s able to place in the top 5 despite getting ruthlessly blocked.

The Takarazuka Kinen marks his second start as a 5YO and he will need to answer a lot of questions. His very last start in the G2 Amir Trophy saw him place last out of 7 runners with his form looking so rocky that his connections had opted to rest him under the belief that his health isn’t up to par. This will be a good time to see where his form is at right now. He doesn’t really have a main jockey compared to others. His closest one would be Oisin Murphy who rode him to success with 2 graded titles and a solid 5th place in l’Arc but he predominantly rides in Europe. 

For all his globe-trotting endeavour, this race will mark his first ever time running in Hanshin since his debut which means at least that he’ll have to warm up his responsiveness to the commands of a different jockey – Atsuya Nishimura who previously rode him just once in the Japanese Derby where he placed dead last. His training video does come off as sluggish however with a 6F time of 85 along with seemingly slow strides. At least he’ll enjoy a turn of foot with a 3F time of 37.8 down to 12 for 1F. 

Gate 15 – My Universe (Colt 4, 1 graded win)

A Nakayama merchant like Museum Mile, My Universe has cleared out his allowances to start his 4YO season off and on his second graded attempt in the G2 Nikkei Sho, he won the race in a remarkably solid fashion. A dramatic turn of foot saw him surge from the back to win the race with a L3F time of 35 which makes for the unambiguous fastest out of the entrants. That’s half a second shorter than 3rd-place Rousham Park’s for a point of comparison. Although he would’ve enjoyed the berth priority of running in the Spring Tenno Sho, his connections opted to skip it instead in a likely bit of influence shown by his gassing out of the Kikuka Sho last year. 

My Universe instead will enter the Takarazuka Kinen to mark his second G1 attempt and he has a lot more in his cards that could turn out favourable to him. He’ll at least enjoy the partnership with his main jockey Norihiro Yokoyama whom he has not placed outside of the podium finish since breaking out of maiden class right at the beginning of last year. His biggest draw however rests in his absurd training video which stands out as being blisteringly fast. His 6F time of 78.6 is shorter than even Lovcen’s and Realize Sirius’s for the Japanese Derby and he’s still able to clock in a sharp time of 35.6 at 3F and 11.4 at 1F. The older Yokoyama saw his achievement of being the oldest jockey in the JRA to win a G1 be taken last week when Take won the Yasuda Kinen on Sixpence. This race could well be the most ample time for him to reclaim the title.

Handicapping

Essentially my predictions of who will go into the top 3 with 1 extra mention going to a contender outside the single-digit favourites who has a high chance at an upset, I feel that they are in the best possible form to win the race.

1 – Meisho Tabaru

Meisho Tabaru’s vying for the consecutive Takarazuka Kinen victory isn’t completely out of the box. If anything, I would imagine that he could well be the winner of the race. His training video eyes up a bid to wrestle the runaway bid from Mystery Way or at the very least run in his own pace up until the final corner. With Take being fresh from his Yasuda Kinen win and the racetrack being heavily biased in favour of frontrunners, Tabaru could simply prod Mystery Way’s attempt to not let him get a bit of rest and instead pull off a similar feat as had happened with Sixpence. Like father, like son might well be the prediction of the race.

2 – Croix du Nord

I want to throw in an argument on how Croix du Nord could lose the race, the possibility that he might not be in a good condition at the last minute, anything that might discount the prospect of him becoming the Spring Triple Crown champion. I can only say that the hype might be incredibly real. Even if he might lose the Takarazuka Kinen, it might only be by the head based on his conditions at the time of writing. His solid training time, strong race records, seemingly adaptability, and clear chemistry with his jockey will make him an opponent to beat.

3 – Danon Decile

The bronze collector continues to collect bronze medals – more news at 11. Danon Decile’s reliability, bond with his jockey, and solid showing in the Osaka Hai makes him feel like a very safe pick for 3rd place. He might not have the most electric of ceilings in terms of his performance, but it’s hard to imagine what the bottom of his floor would’ve looked like. Unless he suffers from a last-minute fever, he’ll carry on with earning a good bit of paycheck from his consistent podium finishes.

Upset – My Universe

Between his monstrous training video and his strong Nikkei Sho showing, My Universe proves to be in peak condition to pull off a major upset in a similar fairy tale fashion with Nakayama Festa in 2010. His strong strides combined with N. Yokoyama’s seasoned experiences make for a very likely opportunity that he’ll claim his first G1 in a manner that feels entirely magical. Pay close attention to him.