“I came here in a bit of a hurry,

carrying a packed bag,

overflowing with talent.

“I hope you’ll forgive me for being late,

since I caught up so quickly!

Now, would you please clear the way for me

to get to the front car [of the train]?

“There’s a special seat for me there,

reserved for the heroine of this journey.”

(Translation by the Umamusume Wiki)

A mythic trio has emerged out of the three jewels that make up one of the headlines of the year. The Triple Tiara is over and while no one is able to claim all three, the final trial is claimed by what is perhaps the strongest of all. The blossoms will rest once more until next year and while the new generation might try once more to find the queen worthy of the throne, the veterans will march on to greater heights.

Final Results (In a Nutshell)

Just as the public would have expected, Monroe Walk blitzed her way through the field to win the coveted third tiara with a finishing time that rivals the newly made course record in Kyoto. Her biggest challenge however comes in having to squeeze past the unwavering Garavogue by a neck who, despite her long layoff throughout her 3-year old season, has placed 2nd in a convincing fashion that cements her Group 1-level potential. Dream Core’s pre-race concerns might have been overblown as she puts on a strong enough spurt to get 3rd place even if it’s over a length behind the two.

Positions at Bends

Sectional Time

Amateurish Analysis (Top 3)

Well, there has to be something about the best-performing racehorses in the race to warrant a deeper look into why they are able to excel as well as they did. In focusing on the top 3, we can look into both the moves made and the context surrounding their pedigree and their race records.

Monroe Walk

The winner of the Shuka Sho was just about what many would have expected. Monroe Walk survived the ruthless pace in the first half of the race running on-pace, was positioned by her jockey Keita Tosaki towards the outside for a swing, and then pulled off a respectable spurt towards the finish line. Her last 3 furlong time of 34.5 seconds marked the third fastest out of the entrants which allows her to push onward to a victory even if she’s a bit tired from the tempo. If not for Garavogue’s shocking drive to hold onto her strong position in the final straight, this would’ve been seen as a dominant win from Monroe Walk. For a bonus to fans of Umamusume, there’s even a video of her fleece being blown off her for a moment which will only add more calls for an allusion to her likely namesake Marilyn Monroe.

The accompanying jockey cam’s video from Tosaki’s perspective helps to elaborate more on what makes Monroe Walk so tough as a runner. Her preferred position of being towards the front even if she’s not setting the pace herself leaves her vulnerable from tiring out prematurely as she’s running up to 65 kilometres/hour by the top-right corner on the upward undulation. All the while, she’s essentially bruteforcing her stamina with the outside angle for the swing which should further add to weathering her out by the final corner. However, she’s able to slowly decelerate enough down to 62 km/hr as she overtook Garavogue and held on to her lead to win. She might not enjoy as much coverage when it comes to possessing an above-average intelligence as the Double Crown prince Lovcen had received, but she definitely possesses the physique to endure tougher conditions whenever she’s racing.

The win adds onto Monroe Walk’s credentials as of now as being the only fourth winner in the race’s history to have accomplished so while undefeated at the time of participation. This will further cement favourable comparisons to 2002’s past champion Fine Motion of course with the key question being on whether she can further enforce her super-filly reputation by entering the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup just next month. The relatively short turnout from this race with its more intensive tempo does pose a risk on whether she’ll be able to maintain her form should her connections want to strike the iron. And even if she’s primed up for a strong showing, there’ll be added pressure on her connections to maintain her flawless streak which could likely involve sticking with being in Japan to build her up as a valuable broodmare prospect.

In addition, even if the prospective entrants for the QEII Cup this year might be more hollow with the deliberate skip by last year’s defending champion Regaleira to run in the G1 Autumn Tenno Sho, there are other contenders to keep watch on. Names like Coconuts Brown, Kamunyak, and Aqua Vernal are the ones who’ll aim to cement themselves as the defining female racehorse in the country for this year following impressive graded wins or performances. That’s excluding a potential entry from same-age fillies such as Dream Core, Laughterlines, and the latest Japanese Oaks winner Juryoku Pierrot who showed their quality to be above many. Monroe Walk will certainly seek greater glory to establish herself as one of the best fillies/mares in the country since the Triple Tiara legend Almond Eye.

Garavogue

The most surprising 2nd placer you could think of, barring those with betting odds at 50 and over, was none other than Garavogue. Once regarded as one of the most promising fillies up until summer of this year with previous 2nd places in the G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies last year and this year’s G1 Oka Sho, she was forced to rest following issues with her right foreleg to prioritise the autumn races instead. The long layoff, combined with how her race records largely rest in the mile, painted doubts on whether she’s fully mentally ready to run once more in top competition along with whether she’s able to extend her distance aptitude.

The great bit of news for Garavogue was that not only had she only lost to Monroe Walk in the final leg by a neck, but she had put on a showing that some would consider as being the best out of the whole field. Even the overwhelming favourite’s performance might come off as an instance of a giant having bled for once with how much effort she needed to exert to edge out an expected win. Garavogue was in 3rd place until right before the final corner throughout the run, right behind the brutally fast pacesetters T M I Run and Nice Play Ask, where she’ll likely be running in the same speed. She managed to edge out Nice Play Ask for 2nd place by the final corner and then maintained her momentum to force Monroe Walk to push herself to the limit in order to win. Her jockey Kazuo Yokoyama, who rode her for the first time, trusts her physique enough to push onward to awe-defining showing and retired jockey and pundit Ando Katsumi even praised her for making the most out of having the innermost gate opening.

Garavogue’s showing would no doubt have cemented her as one of the best of her generation even if she lacks a G1 title. Her class is well above many barring the Tiara winners and her earnings from her placement would guarantee her entry into open-level races in the near future. I don’t know for sure what her next start will be based on this run, but I can see her enter next year’s G1 Victoria Mile as one of the favourites where she could meet Star Anise once again with a score to settle. She might not enjoy the near-peerless records of the mythic Daiwa Scarlet where she placed no worse than 2nd throughout her racing career due to a 9th place in the G3 Queen Cup, but her talent’s up there for sure.

Dream Core

Seems like rumours of Dream Core’s prospects for underperforming were gravely exaggerated. The Japanese Oaks runner-up was able to give her all in the Shuka Sho even if she placed 3rd behind Monroe Walk and Garavogue by a notable margin of 1.25 length. Her L3F time of 34 following the fast pace has left a good impression on her prospects as a G1-level runner even in spite of doubts surrounding her weaknesses like rightward turns or what her true distance specialty might be in. Will she be able to win a G1 in the future? You’d hope so given that past racehorses like Lucky Lilac and Verxina were able to nab one following so many close calls to at least one of the Triple Tiara races.

Rather than run on-pace as had happened in the Oaks and the G2 Rose Stakes, Dream Core was positioned towards the back instead to put extra emphasis on her spurt on the final straight. This was similar to her G1 Oka Sho showing where she held 11th place throughout the race only to end up in a disappointing 9th place with a L3F time of 34.4. This time, with the fast tempo largely seeking out the most durable, Dream Core was able to put on a more solid showing with an improvement from her similar situation by just under half a second which leaves her with the 2nd fastest out of the field at 34 seconds. She might not be developing as neatly as her newfound trainer Hiroyasu Takana would’ve liked, but she has grown better and better with each consecutive start.

This showing should hopefully dispel caution surrounding her weaknesses in favour of more ambitious or diverse plans on her upcoming steps ahead. Based on Lemaire’s comments and how well she did in this run, Dream Core will enjoy an advantage over many of her peers in that she’s more flexible in where she can enter next. She can go from taking part in the G1 Japan Cup even if this year might be too soon or go down a few furlongs to run in the G1 Dubai Turf should connections deem her ready to handle international travel. You would hope at least that she isn’t like Kamunyak in that despite Lemaire’s remarks, she happens to not have the aptitude to be a miler and that she’s better off running in distances between 2000 and 2400 metres. Otherwise, should she be sound following this run, I can see her next start be the QEII Cup for one last bid as a major payoff for her year.

Amateurish Analysis (Other Competitors)

For the rest of the entrants, some have made moves that might have shaped the very way the race is run which makes for unexpected leanings that play to the advantage of others. This section is for those who either had done better than expected even if outside the top 3 or have shaped the race in a way that might have tilted the results in favour of others.

Enne and Something Sweet

Rounding off the top 5 are Enne and Something Sweet who respectively placed 4th and 5th. They both display similarly solid performances even if they might not come off as remarkable as the top 3 themselves. Enne showed off her growing flexibility in her positioning by running on-pace which was more to her main jockey Ryusei Sakai’s liking even if it’s further back than Monroe Walk which led to her L3F being the shared third fastest at 34.5. Something Sweet, sitting much further towards the bottom end, pulled off one of the sharpest spurt out of the others with her L3F time of 33.8 being the shared fastest along with Festival Hill’s (which we’ll get to later on). Both have shown the aptitude of likely winning graded races in the future even if I personally find them to be just below the top dogs in their G1 contention.

The funny fact about Enne in particular is that she shares the same sire with Monroe Walk and Dream Core in the 2013 Japanese Derby winner Kizuna whose progenies are the most archetypically “high performance floor” runners in Japan. The three fillies have done well to the point where, in the one major highlight they’re racing in, they might have cemented an impressive third consecutive leading sire honour for him in the Japan Racing Association’s end-of-year awards. In a time where other sires like Kitasan Black proved very tempting with his sky-high top performers like Croix du Nord, Kizuna’s dependability with his kids being more prone to developing slightly quicker than others make him a reliable bedrock of an investment among prospective racehorse owners. I would recommend you to keep a look out for his 2YOs like On Your Marks or Break Girl whose forms look promising as they’re starting off their careers.

La Belle Scene

My pick for the race’s runner-up might have pulled a decent enough spurt with her L3F time being just behind Monroe Walk’s and Enne’s, but finishing outside the top 5 by a noticeable margin would have left a sour taste. It doesn’t feel great when her promising turn of foot not only doesn’t come through on the final straight, but it also comes off more as a clear byproduct of her tiredness. The fast pace combined with her position being towards the outside means that La Belle Scene would be feeling the race fatigue just about sooner than the top performers.

The final nail on the cross would be on the final corner when her main jockey Kiwamu Ogino readied his whip to get her to spurt only for her to bump onto Dream Core who’s running with all the momentum in the world. Stinging as it looks, you can see the difference in the class between the two where Dream Core was able to maintain her spurt in a clear instance of growth throughout the year while La Belle Scene would’ve been too sluggish and distracted by the collision to notice Ogino’s signal. It’ll be interesting to see whether she’ll be able to improve from there and toughen herself out for next year onward.

Festival Hill

A good bit of shoutout on the individual basis is worth throwing out to Festival Hill who was once hyped up as one of the most promising 2YOs last year with a graded win in the G3 Fantasy Stakes. Her remarkable acceleration which sets her up as a Classics contender was thrown off the wall when she got a small fracture during training which forced her to rest between her graded breakthrough and the Oka Sho where her injury prevented her from going all out. This landed her in a dismal 17th place and on her next start in the G3 Queens Stakes, she performed even worse as she didn’t pick up on her speed. With a very chill L3F time of 37.8, she lagged behind the winner Coconuts Brown by a whopping 3.2 seconds behind in 14th place.

This time, Festival Hill was able to snag 7th place even if she was positioned too far towards the back to make a clear effort for an upset. She clocked the fastest L3F time along with Something Sweet at 33.8 following the fast pace as if to signal that she’s slowly working back to the wunderkind that fans once hyped her up as. She’ll need to contend with the constant juggling of jockeys as her closest main jockey in Sakai had ridden her only two times out of her six starts with her jockey for the Shuka Sho being Suguru Hamanaka. If she’s able to further improve from her showing here in the future and recover fully from her injury, she could enjoy a comeback bid sooner than the recent G2 Fuji Stakes winner Sugar Kun. Maybe then will people get excited about her as a G1-level star in the making.

Master Soarer

Although I have my skepticisms on whether Master Soarer would be able to pop off, she did stick out as one of the big underperformers in the G1 race. It seems like her G2 Shion Stakes victory had established her as a natural on softer turfs and with the ground being a tad bit firmer, she wouldn’t be able to accelerate as well as she did relative to others. You would hope that this wouldn’t signal that she’s not cut out for the very best, but it’s a showing that would entertain some bit of speculation. How funny would it be if her trainer Masayoshi Ebina were to get her owning syndicate Insel Racing’s permission to race her abroad only for her to somehow win a G1 on a naturally softer turf like France’s Prix Aga Khan IV/Prix d’Isphalan? Even if it’s a long shot of an ambition, weirder events do happen in horseracing like Nakayama Festa winning the G1 Takarazuka Kinen and then placing 2nd in the Arc back in 2010…

T M I Run and Nice Play Ask

The two frontrunners who were setting the blistering pace that led to a good mix of overperformances and underperformances were T M I Run and Nice Play Ask. The former had never ran in a graded race at all and she was only coming off of an allowance race for milers. The latter placed right behind the top 5 in the Shion Stakes on her first graded attempt. While the two had bottomed out, the brutal pace had helped draw more attention towards those who did very well in the circumstances with the most notable being Garavogue. I don’t know if they’ll be good enough for entering even listed races, but the two are worth praising for giving their all.