“They always shout,
““It’s impossible for you!”
The voices echo,
““Even you have your limits!”

“Others might be willful
In assuming or stereotyping.
Reject them all.

“Wear the armour named faith

That you have forged up to this day.”

(Original translation by the Umamusume Wiki. Edits done by me)

The final crown awaits only the strongest. Its road a marathon and its walls daunting, it stands as the grounds for dreamers to perish and as monuments of fallen heroes. It shocks as much as it electrifies and it too unleashes the unexpected as much as it unwraps the best. Many can talk about luck or speed but do the contenders have the drive to push onward to the finish line? The Kikuka Sho awards only the toughest.

Introduction & Context

By now, if you are even the most casual of horseracing fans, you might well be aware of one of the greatest glories a racehorse could achieve – being a Triple Crown champion. Consisting usually of three age-restricted races of incrementing distance, the triplet is set up to determine who is the best in their generation when it comes to a certain specialty. To win all three implies a level of mastery over all but the most extreme aptitudes that would confer a valuable retirement career as a sire on top of being a historic name to remember for decades or even centuries to come.

The third and final leg is typically the longest at the usual distance of 2800 metres or more which is catered towards long-distance specialists called stayers. In Japan, that final leg is called the Kikuka Sho (pronounced with a silent “u” in “Kikuka”) and it’s modelled after the original St. Leger Stakes in the United Kingdom. Inaugurated in 1938, the race fishes out the best stayer out of the 3-year old runners in the year and its length of 3000m makes for a big jump in the challenge compared to the Japanese Derby. The additional combination of the entrants’ bodies developing over the summer after the Derby leaves another major aspect in whether one is able to grow enough to compete to their full potential.

As the final leg of the Triple Crown, the Kikuka Sho enjoys the reputation of being a guaranteed go-to start for Double Crown winners to make for a historic endeavour. This tradition especially stands in contrast with the UK where, as one of the industry powerhouses in Europe, the Double Crown winner also has the chance to instead enter the prestigious Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe to prove their worth against older and experienced competition. Japan’s more isolated geography as an island nation that’s far from the mainlands of the continents leave more incentive for connections to prioritise a domestic campaign in a 3YO season with the Kikuka Sho as a potential destination. That being said, the Autumn Tenno Sho is another worthwhile alternative due to it being open to 3YOs and over especially if the entrants fall short of either one of the previous legs.

The Kikuka Sho’s distance, combined with the growth over the summer period, means that winners are likely to either be those in their first G1 entry or have shown potential in their Classics entry. A major example can be found in 1992 when Rice Shower, a distant 2nd favourite with bettings odds at 7.3 after placing 2nd in the Japanese Derby, managed to pull off a dramatic upset win against overwhelming favourite (and Double Crown runner) Mihono Bourbon following the latter’s premature spurt to try and overtake the frontrunner Kyoei Bowgun. Another could be found in 2014 when Toho Jackal, despite debuting only back in May and having just broken out of maiden in June, was able to win after fending off a spurt from Sounds of Earth.

Additionally, there are many bouts of Triple Crown aspirants who fall just about short in trying to run in the Kikuka Sho be it from race fatigue or from an unfortunate injury that prevents a safe entry. Aside from Mihono Bourbon, Meisho Sanson sought the race in 2006 to complete the triplet only to get beaten badly to 4th place – the winner being Song of Wind in his only graded victory. Other Double Crowns like Tokai Teio in 1991, Sunny Brian in 1997, and Duramente in 2015 suffer from fractures which forced connections to forego the ultimate bid for their health, leaving the winner to be a completely different runner. There’s a good bit of streak to be found in how often the most hotly anticipated favourites tend to fall short of expectations.

However, for those who do claim the achievement with the Kikuka Sho on top, be it Narita Brian with a 7-length win in 1994 or Deep Impact’s flawless run in 2005, would immediately go down as an all-time legend with the victory being a guaranteed ticket to the Japan Racing Association’s Hall of Fame. Orfevre, who won all three legs in 2011, would go on to place 2nd in l’Arc over the next two years alongside a dominant grand finale in the 2013 G1 Arima Kinen win. Symboli Rudolf, with his defining achievement being claimed in 1984, later sets up a then-nationwide record of 7 G1 wins in total with 2 Arima Kinens, the Spring Tenno Sho, and the Japan Cup in the next year of his career. Fans await the next legend in the process, but they know for sure that the bid’s not easy to achieve with how anyone could happen to outstay the top dog…

Race Layout and General Assumption

Similar to the Spring Tenno Sho with a reduction in distance by a furlong, the Kikuka Sho’s age-restricted nature as a Classic race leaves two major criterias. One is that it’s the one race out of the Triple Crown legs which is the most dependent on jockeying experience and synergy with the racehorse in question. Because the distance is a big spike to test the entrants’ staying capability, jockeys are much more alert on managing their ride’s stamina in the hopes that they have the natural aptitude towards it. This will likely mean that they’re prone to slower tempo as a safe measure to not prematurely tire out before the final corner. Of course, the final straight will mark the point when all hell breaks loose as more confident jockeys will put their ride’s talent to the test. If they are naturals at it, expect them to make a solid break to the finish line with 1 or more lengths ahead of the competition.

The very best example I could think of in thinking about the jockey’s experience and the racehorse’s aptitude is Christophe Lemaire’s streak of successes. Since 2023, he won the Kikuka Sho three consecutive times out of the grand total of five with his position always being optimal enough for an open spurt and his premature movements well-timed to put pressure on others to make a blunder. Last year in particular shows him move forward half-way through the run on Energico to pace chase behind the frontrunner Excite Bio before using the front-facing position to unleash an electric spurt to finish well ahead of runner-up Eri King who’s jockeyed by Yuga Kawada.

You can argue that the success isn’t so much due to experience as it is a recursive feedback loop of owners/trainers going for the best jockey for the most fitting stayers on paper, but you don’t go on a good streak of wins in the same race just based on that. The contrast between Lemaire’s success compared to Kawada’s will make for a very important distinction as I move on to the Favourites/Dark Horses section. How well a jockey understands their ride and how far they’ll push them to their full extent on top of positioning will matter a lot in whether they win or perform subpar to expectations. Thus, public betting odds are much more prone to picking out winners due to the race coming down to who happens to be a clear stayer along with the jockey trusting their ride enough to run to the limit.

The second major aspect is that trials and past races play a stronger predictive role in determining the winner. Designated trial races like the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai are more prone to having its winners go on to win the G1 due to its distance being at the upper quartile of 2400m along with a similar layout of having the outer ring be used despite being set on a different racetrack in Hanshin. Even further back, you have the G2 Aoba Sho for the Japanese Derby where the massive spike from the 2000m being the longest distance for 2YOs to being 2400m for the first time puts to the test one’s natural stamina. Previous champions like Leo Durban in 1991 would go on to actually win the Kikuka Sho. Allowance races with a distance of 2600m are other factors to keep in mind to check and see if the entrant doesn’t bore themself from running around the racecourse twice and thus act out. Thus, proven experience running in literal longer distance is required to pass the check on being able to do well in the race.

Entrants

Favourites

Often well into the single-digits with their betting odds, the favourites possess the credentials, sky-high individual performances, and the pedigree which should allow them to deliver in the race.

Gate 8 – Lovcen, Not Throwing Away His Shot (Colt 3, 4 graded wins including 3 G1s)

The son of an unpopular stud whose initial expectations were low and whose fertility is fraught with problems. An owning syndicate whose original chairman was riddled in scandals over complicity in the hospitalisation and deaths of patients over contaminated supplements since 2024. The jockey-trainer duo who enjoyed a big peak with a Triple Tiara champion five years ago but whose achievements were overshadowed by bigger names with far-reaching ambitions. Lovcen on paper shouldn’t be the colt to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown with his first graded bid in last year’s G1 Hopeful Stakes putting his odds at a modest 19.8 as the 7th favourite just under 2 months after his debut win. However, with a dope sidestep on the final straight, he clinched his first taste of glory and had since then never let up on his consistency.

Lovcen builds on his remarkably impressive resume of clutch wins after clutch wins with his sole loss being a 3rd place behind Realize Sirius by a neck in the G3 Kyodo Tsushin Hai early this year. In the Satsuki Sho, he pulled off a wire-to-wire win to claim the first leg with Realize Sirius struggling to find a window to edge him out. The Japanese Derby showing proved even more remarkable as despite getting the disadvantageous outer gate draw of 17, he managed to nab the win following the spurt from the outside to finish ahead of last year’s G2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes victor Peintre Naif by a head. In the Kobe Shimbun Hai as a prep run, he won the key predictive indicator of the final leg’s victor by a nose against the rapidly accelerating Altramuz who’s now forced to skip the race due to an injury.

Additionally, Lovcen’s key strengths lie in his seeming intelligence, flexibility, and consistent readiness during training. His combo with his main jockey Kohei Matsuyama frequently sees him go from his seeming comfort spot of being a frontrunner to hedging on a powerful spurt after running midpack. Observers note his tendency to ready his strides before the gate opens or how he switches his leading front leg just before the finish line to edge out the win. His training videos are often prone to praise as well with his most recent one for the Kikuka Sho showing a remarkably sharp 1 furlong time of 11.1 seconds.  If he does have a blindspot that needs an extra pair of eyes to identify, Matsuyama is on the streak of his life with multiple graded wins this year on short-distance filly Star Anise, prospective sprinter Flicker Jab, and promising 2YO G T Maika.

The credentials in Lovcen almost seemed too good to ignore especially taking into account his well-rounded pedigree; his father World Premiere was a proven stayer after all who won the Kikuka Sho back in 2019 and the Spring Tenno Sho in 2021. Yet, as tough as he looked, Lovcen’s margins of win do come off as being too narrow for his own good and with this race being his first time staying, he has as many unanswered questions around whether he can stay as the other entrants. This time, all it takes is for one to actually have the natural staying tendency for his bid to come all too close for comfort. Matsuyama also has a modest record in riding stayers as while he did decent on the likes of Aqua Vernal, rarely won a race over 2400m regardless of whether it’s graded or not. His trainer Haruki Sugiyama, hopeful nonetheless to train and raise the Triple Crown winner, even has doubts on whether he can truly stay in 3000m according to an Umatoku article following the Kobe Shimbun Hai. Lovcen’s a clear safe bet for the winner, but it could simply take one good day for a rival to put an end to the dream…

Gate 10 – Danon History, Phantom Assassin (Colt 3)

If Lovcen represents the fairy tale rise to superstardom despite initially modest reactions, Danon History stands as a prince coming back from banishment to push his claim to the throne. The son of Ephiphaneia whose progenies are often praised as being precocious between the ages of 2 and 3, he enjoyed a stacked pedigree which consisted of noted stayers like his great-grandfather Special Week as well as his siblings being strong graded performers like 2-time G1 Dubai Turf placer Danon Beluga or the 2024 G1 Shuka Sho runner-up Bond Girl. This sets him up initially as one of the top 2YOs to look forward to last year and his debut especially proved impressive with a wire-to-wire win.

Danon History’s first graded attempt in the Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes saw him get a late start however which led to a poor 7th place. This in turn puts a dent towards massive hype around him as a preliminary Triple Crown favourite. This was then followed with a rollercoaster of temperament problems that made him near-impossible to train and thus led to him pulling out of preparing for the Classics at all. It took until July of this year, after the two legs of the Classics were run, when he finally was in a good enough mood to run. His comeback in an allowance race was nothing short of astonishing as he pulled off two consecutive wins by over 1 second ahead of an entire fiend. Not length, second. They might be easy competition to deal with, but the margin of victory is a clear signal towards a graded-level performer.

Danon History’s credentials to put an end to Lovcen’s campaign is further enhanced by his incredibly stacked connections. Remember how I said that Lemaire’s the top example of how important a jockey can be to unleashing their ride’s staying potential? In addition to having won the same race last year on Energico (which marks three consecutive titles at the time of writing), Lemaire also won the G3 Diamond Stakes this year on Stinger Glass who’s now going to run in the G1 Melbourne Cup as the main Japanese representative with him onboard as his jockey. There’s a major incentive for him to do well on Danon History as a major warm-up towards one of Australia’s most prestigious races. Trainer Noriyuki Hori also harbours a lot of compliments for the racehorse by praising his long strides as an indication towards him being a natural stayer.

Danon History however has big challenges ahead of him given that while he has shown the talent based on his dominant wins, they’re all in the modest allowance range. The Kikuka Sho will mark his first graded attempt at all since his disastrous run last year and with his training putting major emphasis on ensuring that he runs in his own way, there’s no guarantee that he’ll carry on his dominant way. Second, his contemporaries have grown just as he does and with experiences running in more stacked competition, this only pushed more pressure on whether he’s mentally ready enough to deliver on his fandom’s dreams. The last barrier of course lies in whether he’s truly a staying talent in heart. 2600m is well within the upper quartile of the distances a racehorse can run in, but it’s a far cry compared to 3000m and more especially if it’s done on an ungraded level. Will Danon History be able to pull off a massive comeback into public adoration?

Dark Horses

With odds between 10 and 30-40 depending on the favourites, they look unremarkable compared to the top favourites. They do however have a notable history of placing well in graded titles and should the entries be stacked enough, even win at least 1 themselves. They simply appear to lack the “X-factor” needed to win the biggest championships in the country.

Gate 1 – M’s Begin (Colt 3)

Best known as the very expensively purchased son of the beloved Kitasan Black with a broodmare sire in the European legend Dubawi, M’s Begin initially enjoyed a solid start to his career with a quick maiden win followed up with a 2nd place in the G3 Kisaragi Sho. However, an underperformance in the G2 Kyoto Shimbun Hai as the 2nd favourite saw his seeming main jockey Yuga Kawada get replaced with different names as he bottomed out of the Japanese Derby with top Brazilian jockey Francisco Goncalves on him. His autumn run at least showed glimmers of hope when he placed 5th in the Kobe Shimbun Hai with Yutaka Take riding him with a sharp L3F time of 33.6. Yet, that’s also met with a reset due to the latter’s commitment with Going to Sky. Now he’s paired with Mirai Iwata whose strong performances this year include a G1 Sprinter’s Stakes win on Puro Magic. After a nightmare of a season, could this run finally be M’s Begin to stake his fame? His strides in his training video does look long enough to allow him to run longer distances in a more optimal way, but he’s been juggling between jockeys so he’ll need to luck out on Iwata being the one to click with him instantly.

Gate 2 – Congestus (Colt 3, 1 graded win)

Amidst speculations surrounding who among Contrail’s first batch of foals could be his defining star, Congestus is the name that becomes increasingly speculated as being a sleeper stayer. His training videos often saw him running up the slope with ease while clocking in an above-average 1F time of 12.2 which suggests a clear readiness towards Kyoto’s top-right undulation. His graded breakthrough in the G2 Kyoto Shimbun Hai was done under a fast tempo which turned the final straight into the battle of who’s able to tire out the slowest which allowed him to edge out top favourite Bereshit. Congestus does however struggle from underperformance despite being a target of analysis by curious pundits. He will enjoy the company of his main jockey Atsuya Nishimura if nothing else to know the ins and outs of his habit.

Gate 3 – Audacia (Colt 3, 1 graded win)

The G2 Spring Stakes winner didn’t do well in the Japanese Derby sadly enough, but an emphatic 3rd place in the St. Lite Kinen makes for an increased enquiry on his potential. His father Kizuna is no stranger to siring reliable stayers like the mentioned Stinger Glass or the runner-up of last year’s iteration in Eri King. There’s a definite potential in him to do well based on pedigree, but he would need to confirm it in full should he be the one to snipe the win from right under Lovcen’s nose.

Gate 5 – Justin Chicago (Colt 3, 1 graded win)

The massive upset victor of one of the designated trial races in the G2 St. Lite Kinen, Justin Chicago took his time to come into form which begins with his 2nd place against Meisho Hachiko in the listed Principal Stakes. Once summer came however, he went all out into a storm with a wire-to-wire allowance win before his big break where he ran up the undulation with ease. His training video might come off as unremarkable given his average clocked time even as he managed to catch up to his training partner. His double-edged perk however lies in his trusty partnership with Yusuke Hara who’s enjoying his big break this year with three graded titles already won. With more attention glued to him following his shock win, Justin Chicago could prove that he has what it takes to add another G1 credential to his father Suave Richard’s value as a stud.

Gate 6 – Basse Terre (Colt 3, 1 graded win)

If there’s an expression that sums up Basse Terre, it’s that fans would feel at times that he’s the kind of racehorse that goes forward one step only to go back two times. His strong showing in the Derby along with his preceding G2 Yayoi Sho win contrasts with his tendency to bottom out of the Satsuki Sho from the back-end position along with a disappointing 13th place in the St. Lite Kinen. He’s looking to be one of the best 3YOs from Kitasan Black this year only for his form to be too inconsistent to one’s liking. Not helping as well is his main jockey Kawada who not only is struggling with claiming an international G1 win this year, but has a longstanding problem with winning graded stayer races at all with his sole win being in the 2010 iteration of the same race on Big Week during the early years of his career. Basse Terre has shown the physical talent to pop off if needed, but he will need to lock in hard if he wants to establish himself as the very best of his pop’s crop.

Gate 9 – Going to Sky (Colt 3, 1 graded win)

With a sharp turn of foot, an established main jockey in Take, and a win in the G2 Aoba Sho whose winners would go on to win the top staying races in the country, Going to Sky has the showings of being Contrail’s top progeny on paper. Hype surrounding him has dampened down however in light of his St. Lite Kinen underperformance where he placed 6th and he’s now neck-and-neck with Congestus in being the star kid of their father’s first crop. All that being said, his connections are reassuring in saying that the run was only there as a glorified training exercise to see if he’s able to move all right and Take’s confident that his spurt is still as good as ever. Time will tell if he’s the assassin who will outstay Lovcen in the final leg of the Triple Crown; it would make for a poetic comparison to how Contrail’s Triple Crown bid was nearly slain by the fast-approaching Aristoteles.

Gate 11 – Ask Edinburgh (Colt 3)

In a funny sort of way, Ask Edinburgh ran against Lovcen for longer than other rivals in the same generation ever since his 3rd place in the Hopeful Stakes last year. Their other encounters include the first two legs in the Satsuki Sho and the Japanese Derby. It’s fair to say that Lovcen stood out as the ideal nemesis for the aspiring colt to overcome especially given the similarly well-aligned pedigree which should make Ask Edinburgh a solid performer in all three legs of the Triple Crown (he sadly flopped in the Derby at 10th place). He does however enjoy the cooperation from his trainer Yuichi Fukunaga whose strong results as a trainer include a rare sweep in winning all headlining races on the 12th of October. Ask Sexy More won the listed October Stakes, Diamond Knot clinched the G2 Swan Stakes, and Meisho Hachiro claimed the glory of the domestic G1 Mile Championship Nambu Hai.

Combined with his main jockey Yasunari Iwata who rode him on all his starts, expect Ask Edinburgh’s potential overperformance to come off on the back of immaculately well-planned training and prepwork being done against marked opponents. The former factor especially looks really scary with the clocked time of 81.5 for 6F, 36.6 for 3F, and 11.2 for 1F. If there’s anyone whose form might come closest to Lovcen’s to the point of making him work his ass off to make his Triple Crown deserving, it could well be Ask Edinburgh.

Handicapping

Essentially my predictions of who will go into the top 3 with 1 extra mention going to a contender outside the single-digit favourites who has a high chance at an upset, I feel that they are in the best possible form to win the race.

1 – Lovcen

The safest bet goes to the one who’s on the verge of making history. Lovcen’s clutch wins, strong training performances, and clear flexibility in positioning makes him a foe that will make a run hell for a lot of the entrants. As he stands on the edge of being the latest Triple Crown champion, Lovcen feels like someone who you could always come close to overcoming only to feel as though you’re too far from even being able to make them sweat. He simply looks unstoppable relative to his peers.

2 – Ask Edinburgh

Having enjoyed a solid bit of placements in graded races, Ask Edinburgh’s training time combined with his pedigree makes for a contender who could come close to making Lovcen bleed (figuratively speaking). He might have not won a graded race yet, but he has shown the potential to be a star stayer in the making. If circumstances do line up well enough for him, expect him to come out on top as the unexpected upset winner.

3 – Going to Sky

Going to Sky’s proven spurt combined with his partnership with Take allows him to tick off  one half of the potential top performers of the race. While one could question his stamina, his Aoba Sho breakthrough could stand out as an indication that he could do well in the Kikuka Sho given the big spike in stamina requirement in order to run in the Japanese Derby. He’s shown the talent to pop off if needed and if comments around him not being pushed to his full extent is true, this could be the run for him to make the final straight a full-on clincher of a war.

Upset – M’s Begin

M’s Begin might not do as well as fans would have hoped for and his race records do come off as being muddy. However, his long strides based on his training video along with his stacked pedigree could line up for him to stand out as the unexpected superstar stayer if he’s able to do far better than expected in the run. He will need to deal with how often he has to switch between jockeys, but if he’s able to click with Mirai Iwata in an instant, he could go even further in placement than his reassuring 5th place in the Kobe Shimbun Hai.